Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, Solana Are In For A 'Long And Exhausting Bull Market,' Bernstein Predicts

Research firm Bernstein expects the ongoing rally in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin BTC/USD, Ethereum ETH/USD, and XRP XRP/USD to evolve into a "long and exhausting bull market."

It will be driven not by retail speculation, but by deep structural trends — institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and the emergence of a fully on-chain financial system.

What Happened: In a new memo to clients on Monday, analysts argue that the market has transitioned from hype cycles to a more durable transformation of finance.

Bernstein is forecasting a prolonged and transformative crypto bull market, underpinned by institutional adoption and a maturing regulatory framework.

In its latest research note, the firm states its conviction in blockchain and digital assets "has never been higher," adding that the current cycle departs from previous hype-driven phases by being led almost entirely by institutions, with retail interest still lagging.

The firm emphasizes that this bull run is unlikely to follow the typical four-year Bitcoin halving cycle.

Instead, it expects a "structural" growth phase marked by the on-chain movement of financial assets, beginning with stablecoins, and the eventual emergence of an internet-native financial system.

At the center of this transition are public blockchains like Ethereum and Solana SOL/USD, which Bernstein sees as forming the core global economic infrastructure for programmable settlement and tokenized finance.

Bernstein projects that stablecoins, currently a $230 billion market, will drive mass adoption of on-chain payments, especially in the business-to-business and global remittance sectors.

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With the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts expected to pass in the U.S., regulated players like Circle CRCL, Coinbase COIN, and Robinhood HOOD are positioned to anchor a reshored crypto trading and settlement environment.

Bernstein expects U.S. market share of global crypto trading to grow from 10% to 13%, supported by new onshore crypto derivatives markets.

Why It Matters: The asset management industry is also undergoing a fundamental shift.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs now command nearly $164 billion in assets under management, with BlackRock's IBIT alone generating more revenue than any other ETF under the asset manager's umbrella.

The report sees this as an early signal of sustained institutional interest and forecasts the next phase of active crypto asset management to include top 5, 20, and 50 token baskets, especially once token securities become fully defined under U.S. law.

Tokenization of financial assets is another key theme in the report.

Bernstein argues that tokenizing equities, deposits, and debt can enable instant settlement, reduce operational inefficiencies, and offer continuous access to global financial markets.

It sees Robinhood's launch of tokenized U.S. equities for European users as a preview of things to come, noting that both Robinhood and Coinbase are investing in blockchain infrastructure to support future capital markets built entirely on-chain.

Bernstein concludes that what's emerging is a reflexive loop: as blockchain applications gain real-world utility, they attract institutional flows, which in turn reinforce the value proposition of blockchain-native assets like ETH and SOL.

The firm expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by year-end, $500,000 by 2029, and $1 million by 2033.

Despite widespread skepticism, Bernstein insists this is no ordinary cycle.

"You may call us ‘Believers,'" the report notes, "but we suspect, we may have crossed the ‘belief' stage."

With on-ground adoption underway and regulatory scaffolding solidifying, the firm urges investors to rethink comparisons to earlier crypto rallies.

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