Will Jobs Data Provide Answers For Fed? Benzinga's Weekly Main Street Monitor

Last week's economic data supported the recent declining trend in inflation, giving the Federal Reserve room to go slow on rate hikes. A dovish Fed stance is seen as necessary to help the economy navigate through the credit crunch caused by the banking crisis.

Weekly jobless claims data showed a modest increase, but the tighter labor market seen since last year gives the Fed reason to stay on course. Any signal of a crack in the labor market is seen as positive by the market.

House prices continue to bounce around the bottom amid higher mortgage rates, according to two separate surveys released last week. The ISM-Chicago's regional business barometer edged up in March but remained at levels signaling continued contraction.

Here are the key economic data on investors' radar this week:

Jobs, Jobs And More Jobs: The unfolding week will see the release of three separate job market reports. The most important one among those is the Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payrolls report for March. The data drops at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Friday, which happens to be a market holiday in observance of “Good Friday.”

• Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 238,000 in March, slower than February's pace. The jobless rate, based on household surveys, is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%.

The annual rate of the average hourly earnings, often considered an inflation measure, may have slowed from 4.6% to 4.3%.

ADP is scheduled to release its private payroll data on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. EDT. The number is often considered a precursor to the BLS data released two days later, although typically the two numbers are not perfectly correlated. Private payroll growth may have slowed from 242,000 in February to 205,000 in March.

The Labor Department will release the customary weekly jobless claims data on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

The monthly Challenger job cuts data will be released on Tuesday at 7:30 a.m. EDT. It gives a compilation of corporate job cuts announced during a month.

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Business Activity Readings: ISM is due to release its manufacturing index on Monday at 10 a.m. EDT, with the headline purchasing managers’ index expected at 51.2 in March, a small downtick from 51.3 in February.

The organization will release the non-manufacturing PMI on Wednesday at 10 a.m. EDT, with the index widely expected to slip from 55.1 in February to 54.5 in March.

S&P Global is scheduled to release its final services and composite PMIs on Wednesday, at 9:45 a.m. EDT. The two indices are expected to come in at 53.8 and 53.3, respectively, unchanged from the respective flash readings.

Monday will witness the release of the Dallas Fed’s price consumption expenditure index for February at 12:05 p.m. EDT.

Fed Speeches: Among the Fed officials making public appearances this week are:

• Fed Governor Lisa Cook: Monday at 4:15 p.m. EDT
• Cook speaks again: Tuesday at 1:30 a.m. EDT
• Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren: Tuesday at 1:30 p.m. EDT

Other Key Data:

The Commerce Department is scheduled to release its construction spending report for February on Monday at 10 a.m. EDT. Economists expect a 0.1% month-over-month decline in spending.

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department will release its factory goods orders report for February at 10 a.m. EDT.

The routinely scheduled mortgage application volume data will be released by the Mortgage Bankers' Association on Wednesday at 7 a.m. EDT.

The Commerce Department is due to release its trade balance data for February on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Economists, on average, expect the trade deficit to widen from $68.3 billion to $69 billion in February.

The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly oil inventory report on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Treasury Auctions:

• Three- and six-month bill auctions: Monday at 11:30 a.m. EDT
• Four- and eight-week bill auctions: Thursday at 11:30 a.m. EDT
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