Retail Sales Growth Eases In June, But Still Signals Healthy Demand Conditions

Consumer spending remained resilient in June, but advanced at a lower-than-expected pace, suggesting healthy demand conditions in the economy.

Retail sales experienced a 0.2% month-over-month increase in June, missing the 0.5% rise forecasted and following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in May, according to the preliminary estimates released by U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday.

The core retail sales gauge, which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, rose 0.3% month-over-month in June, beating expectations of a flat reading but slowing from an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in May.

June Retail Sales: What You Need To Know

• The seasonally adjusted advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2023 came in at $689.5 billion, up 0.2% on the month and 1.5% year-over-year.
  
• The 0.2% monthly increase in retail sales was lower than the 0.5% gain predicted by economists.The 1.5% yearly increase in retail sales was also somewhat lower than the 1.6% expected.
  
• Retail sales increased for the third month in a row, after climbing 0.4% in April and 0.5% in May. The April 2023 to May 2023 change was revised from 0.3% to 0.5%.
  
• Core retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and parts, saw a 0.2% increase on a monthly basis, slowing from the 0.3% rise in May and missing expectations of a 0.3% increase. On an annual basis, core retail sales showed 0.6% growth.
  
• When excluding gasoline stations as well, core retail sales experienced a 0.3% monthly increase in June, slightly lower than the revised 0.5% recorded in May but surpassing expectations of zero. On a year-over-year basis, core retail sales excluding autos and gas were 3.9% higher.
   
• Among various spending categories, the largest monthly increases were seen in miscellaneous store retailers, with a 2% rise, and nonstore retailers, with a 1.9% increase.
   
• On the other hand, the most significant monthly declines were observed in gasoline stations, which saw a 1.4% monthly drop, and building material, garden equipment and supplies dealers, down 1.2%.

Market Reactions: Dollar Ticks Higher

• The U.S. Dollar index, which is tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF UUP, ticked 0.2% higher in the minutes after the release.
  
• A further rate hike by the Fed following the July meeting is estimated at 12% probability in September and 22% probability by November.
  
• Futures on the S&P 500 index, which is closely tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY ticked 0.1% down. 
  
• Treasury yields were flat, with the 10-year note trading at 3.78% yield and the two-year at 4.74% yield.
  
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