Soft Landing ... What About Long Landing? Harker Hints At Pause, Traders Expect Rate Cut In 7 Months

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker on Tuesday hinted at a potential pause in the Fed’s interest rate hiking cycle, an indication the Fed may be done with its most rate hike campaign.

What Happened: Speaking at a Philadelphia Business Journal event, Harker said, "Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady and let the monetary policy actions we have taken do their work."

He also underscored the likely longevity of a pause, sidelining any immediate chances of easing rates.

Expanding on the economic outlook, Harker said he anticipates the Fed’s core inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, will taper to just under 4% by the end of 2023.

A further dip below 3% might be in the cards for the following year, he noted, aiming for the Fed's 2% target by 2025.

In Harker’s projection, a subtle economic slowdown will dovetail any moderated disinflation. “I do see us on the flight path to the soft landing we all hope for and that has proved quite elusive in the past,” he said.

Read also: What Economists Expect When Key Inflation Data Arrives Thursday As Market Looks For Clues On The Fed’s Next Move

Not All Fed Officials Agree: While Harker’s sentiments suggest a pause, the Fed’s camp is not unanimously aligned.On Monday Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said further rate hikes may be needed to ensure price stability.

What Do The Markets Think? Investors are assuming with 85% probability the Fed will hold rates steady at its September meeting, with indications that the first decrease in rates will come by March of next year, according to the CME Group Fed Watch tool.

With the Consumer Price Index inflation report set for release Thursday, estimates are leaning toward a 0.2% month-on-month uptick and year-on-year increase of 3.3%.

Read next: US Banking Sector Shaken: Moody’s Drops Credit Ratings Of 10 Banks, Sounds Alarm For More Downgrades

Photo via Shutterstock.