Fed Chair Powell Remains Cautious: 'Premature' To Declare Victory On Inflation, 'Prepared To Tighten Policy Further'

In a conversation with Spelman College President Helene Gayle on Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underscored that it’s “premature” to declare the Fed’s efforts as sufficiently restrictive, highlighting a readiness to adjust policies further if needed.

Powell began by highlighting the promising signs of the U.S. economy returning to equilibrium between supply and demand for workers. Notably, he emphasized the ongoing strength in job creation, albeit at a more sustainable pace.

Powell acknowledged a recent drop in overall inflation to 3% over the 12 months leading to October. However, his focus remained on core inflation, which excludes the volatile components of energy and food prices, which remains at 3.5%, well above the Fed’s 2% objective.

“While these lower inflation readings of the past few months are welcome, this progress is going to need to continue if we are to reach our 2% objective,” Powell said.

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He emphasized the need for restraint in drawing premature conclusions about future Fed policy rates, adding that the Fed is “prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.”

Powell reiterated the importance of moving carefully, stressing that data-driven decisions should guide the Fed’s course of action.

Powell also celebrated the remarkable resilience of the U.S. economy in the post-pandemic world. The nation’s stellar growth and robust labor market recovery exceeded expectations

In a playful question about what’s amusing for a Fed Chair, Powell responded with a “really positive inflation report.”

“Price stability is [the] bedrock of the economy,” he added.

Market Reactions

Financial markets responded calmly to Powell’s remarks.

U.S. stocks had a positive start on the first day of the month. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY gained 0.2%, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA saw an increase of 0.3%. Small-cap stocks, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM, performed remarkably well, surging by 1.9%. However, the tech sector had a surprising lag, with the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ declining by 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) experienced a 0.2% decrease, and yields on U.S. Treasury bonds continued to decline. The 10-year benchmark yield dropped to 4.26%, while the 2-year yield fell to 4.58%, reaching its lowest level since mid-June.

Gold continued its upward trajectory, reaching $2,056 per ounce, and it appears to be on track to retest its all-time highs. Investors can track this performance through the SPDR Gold Trust GLD.

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Photo: Federal Reserve