China's Economy Poised To Overtake US By 2035, Says Top Chinese Economist Who Made The Bold Prediction 1994

A prediction made 31 years ago by the Chinese economist Justin Lin Yifu which claimed that China’s economy will surpass that of the U.S., is about to materialize over the next five to 10 years, he said.

What Happened: Former chief economist and senior vice-president at World Bank, Lin Yifu’s 1994 prediction was reaffirmed by him while speaking at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong on Monday, reported the South China Morning Post.

He believes that U.S. economic growth has decelerated along with the sluggish growth in China's annual gross domestic product.

According to him, if market exchange rates remain unchanged his prediction will come true in a few years.

This event took place on Monday just a few hours before Joe Biden‘s farewell speech on Monday.

Biden said, "When I took office, you all recall, and the experts believed … it was inevitable that China's economy would surpass ours. According to many predictions that would happen by the year 2030 or shortly thereafter."

"Now, according to the latest predictions, on China's current course, they will never surpass us,” he added.

However, Lin Yifu in his speech said that China's annual economic growth is still notably higher than that of the U.S.

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Why It Matters: In 1994, Lin Yifu penned his book ‘The China Miracle,’ where he had made this prediction. Back then, China’s economic growth was soaring, exceeding 13%. This peaked at 14.2% in 2007 before gradually decelerating. Since 2011 the growth dipped to 9.6% and the Chinese economy has consistently seen single-digit expansion.

During his speech Lin Yifu expressed unwavering confidence in China’s ability to significantly increase its per capita GDP, aiming to reach half of the United States’ level by 2049.

This ambitious goal, if achieved, would translate into China’s total GDP surpassing that of the U.S. by a factor of two, solidifying the nation’s position as a global economic powerhouse and moving it closer to its aspiration of becoming a stronger, more modernized country.

China's National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the country's 2024 GDP data on Friday. President Xi Jinping closed out the year by saying China was on track to hit its goal of "around 5%".

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