2025 Asset Allocation In 'Higher-For-Longer' Era: Why Value Stocks, Emerging Markets, Inflation-Protected Bonds Stand Out

As markets navigate a challenging landscape, George Smith, Portfolio Strategist for LPL Financial, is advocating a recalibrated asset allocation strategy for the next three to five years.

His outlook reflects a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment, subdued economic growth, and inflation that may remain stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's target.

Dialing Down Risk: A Cautious Equity Stance

“The risk-reward trade-off for both stocks and bonds is being challenged by a slowing-growth environment, elevated inflation, and a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate outlook,” Smith said. He added that stretched equity valuations and falling equity risk premiums have prompted his team to reduce exposure to domestic growth stocks, particularly large- and mid-cap names.

Instead, Smith favors value equities and emerging markets. “Foreign equities, especially emerging markets, remain attractive over the longer term,” he notes, emphasizing the risk-reward advantage of rotating from developed markets into EM.

For investors, ETFs like the Vanguard Value ETF VTV and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF EEM could align with this strategy.

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Fixed Income: Playing It Smart

In fixed income, Smith advises trimming nominal Treasuries, stating, “Longer-duration fixed income may not deliver significant protection in ordinary financial market corrections.”

Instead, core bonds remain essential for diversification and income, while short-duration Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) gain favor.

The iShares TIPS Bond ETF TIP offers a way to implement this.

Alternatives, Real Assets: Diversifying The Playbook

To hedge volatility and enhance diversification, Smith highlights the importance of alternatives. “We believe alternative investments can be used to hedge potential volatility and market concentration risks via a diversified basket of long/short equity, managed futures, and global macro strategies,” he says.

Multi-strategy and global macro funds, such as the iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF DBMF, can serve this purpose.

For inflation protection, Smith suggests real assets. “We aim to hedge potential inflation risks by initiating an off-benchmark diversified basket of commodities and global listed infrastructure,” he explains.

ETFs like the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund DBC and Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF PAVE fit the bill.

With risks mounting and traditional stock-bond dynamics shifting, Smith’s insights provide a timely roadmap for resilient portfolios.

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