Big Money Flows Into Micron Amid Easing Tariff Pressures - Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU)

While President Donald Trump's economic policies — particularly related to tariffs — have clouded the broader narrative, at least some sectors could see a reprieve. According to a Bloomberg report, the Trump administration might not pursue levies on critical industries like automobiles and semiconductors, at least for the time being. Naturally, this development has strong implications for Micron Technology Inc. MU.

Of course, the major tailwind is not an exclusive catalyst for MU stock. For example, one of the main tech benchmarks, Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 QQQ, popped around 2% on Monday, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY wasn't too far behind. It goes without saying that the usual suspects in the semiconductor space, such as Nvidia Corp NVDA, benefited handsomely from the surge.

Nevertheless, investors may want to pay close attention to MU stock. For one thing, the underlying company is critically important for artificial intelligence. Generative AI is a data-hungry machine, and Micron—thanks to its memory and storage infrastructure specialty—feeds it.

Specifically, AI workloads require massive amounts of data for training and operating purposes. Advanced systems are constantly moving data in and out of memory. Micron's dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) and flash storage (NAND) products allow this process to happen quickly and reliably.

Second, Micron is coming off an upbeat second-quarter earnings report. Revenue of $8.05 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.56 beat the respective analysts' targets of $7.89 billion and $1.42 per share. Even better, management broadcast optimism for the third quarter due to DRAM and NAND demand growth in both data center and consumer markets.

Subsequently, MU stock slipping about 17% below parity over the past 52 weeks seems to be a discount.

Smart Money Inflows Offer the Most Important Opinion About MU Stock

As encouraging as the fundamental winds are, they won't matter much if the market doesn't respond in kind. For this response to materialize, it's not enough for individual investors to have positive vibes. Instead, institutional money needs to talk with their wallets, which appears to be happening with MU stock.

Earlier on Monday, Benzinga's options scanner identified unusual activity in Micron's derivative contracts, with big money piling in. Most conspicuously, the highest dollar-volume trade was for 3,300 contracts of the $100 call expiring next month on April 17. This trade is significant because of the relatively unambiguous nature of the transaction.

Because the sentiment is bullish, the call options represent a debit transaction; that is, the trader must pay the premium (or the ask price) to acquire the calls. By logical deduction, the breakeven price for such a transaction is the strike price plus the premium paid. In this case, the trader is signaling that before expiration, MU stock should pop above $103.30.

Bear in mind that a bought call option can only be profitable if it rises above the breakeven threshold, based on intrinsic or extrinsic value or a combination of both. While it's not guaranteed that MU stock will swing higher from here, it's reasonable to assume that the whales believe upside is approaching.

Enticingly, in the technical chart, MU stock appears to be forming a pattern reminiscent of a bullish pennant. If anything, the price action since September last year is noticeably funneling into an apex. From the above data, the whales are positioning for a big breakout.

Adding to the enthusiasm is the statistical argument. As a baseline, MU stock (using data over the past six years) enjoys an upward bias. A long position held for any given eight-week period has a 56.15% chance of rising.

Under the dynamic conditions of sizable volatility — defined as a weekly loss between 5% and 10%, as occurred last week — an eight-week hold sees long odds rise to nearly 62%.

Two Ways to Roll the Dice on MU Stock

With the whales targeting the April 17 $100 calls, it makes sense to duplicate this trade. However, retail traders can leverage demand for this derivative by selling it in a net bullish transaction called the bull call spread. Here's how one iteration works out.

Consider the 95/100 bull spread expiring April 17. This transaction involves buying the $95 call (at a time-of-writing ask of $530) and simultaneously selling the $100 call (at a bid of $288). The proceeds from the short call partially offset the debit paid for the long call, resulting in a net cash outlay of $242, the most that can be lost in the trade.

Should MU stock hit the $100 short strike price at expiration, the maximum reward comes out to be the difference between the strike prices (multiplied by 100 shares per contract) and the debit paid, or nominally $258. This translates to a payout of almost 107%.

Another simpler approach is to buy the MU stock call option straight up. If going this route, it might make sense to buy a longer-expiry call, such as the May 16 expiration date. This way, traders can give themselves extra time for the potential bullish pennant to break out.

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