Goldman Sachs Cheers China Tariff Exemptions, Lifts Earnings Forecasts For Apple, Dell, HP

Goldman Sachs analysts swiftly raised their earnings forecasts for top U.S. tech giants after a surprise weekend decision from the White House shielded key electronics from steep new tariffs on Chinese imports.

In a note shared Monday, analyst Michael Ng said U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued guidance late Friday clarifying that 20 tech product categories—including smartphones, servers, routers, solid-state drives and semiconductor equipment—would be exempt from the sweeping 125% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods.

The exemptions apply retroactively to April 5 and may soften the blow for key hardware manufacturers facing escalating trade tensions.

Apple, Dell, HP Get A Reprieve

Goldman Sachs reversed recent estimate cuts on Apple Inc. AAPL, Dell Technologies Inc. DELL, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. HPE and HP Inc. HPQ.

"These adjustments largely reverse the estimate cuts we made on April 7," Ng said, tying the swing directly to the reversal in tariff policy.

Thanks to improved gross margins, Goldman now sees stronger profitability ahead for these firms.

According to the investment bank, the move is particularly favorable for smartphone, PC, server and networking equipment makers. Still, the bank stopped short of sounding the all-clear, saying that "ongoing uncertainty in trade policy and growth" continues to pose a risk to the sector.

Apple received one of the largest upgrades. Goldman lifted its 12-month target price from $242 to $259 and increased projected earnings per share for fiscal years 2025 through 2027 by 6% on average, with estimates now at $7.37, $8.27 and $9.24, respectively. The revised valuation assumes a 30-times multiple on earnings one year forward, consistent with prior models.

Shares of the Cupertino-based iPhone maker climbed 5.5% in Monday’s premarket session, nearly reversing the losses it suffered following Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2.

Dell also saw a notable earnings bump. Goldman raised its fiscal 2026 EPS forecast from $7.57 to $9.13 and reiterated a target price of $95. That reflects a 9-times multiple on forward earnings, unchanged from previous assumptions.

Dell Technologies Inc. jumped 6%, also reclaiming ground lost earlier this month.

For HP Inc., while the rating remained Neutral, Goldman increased its fiscal 2025 and 2026 EPS projections by 10% on average, now forecasting $3.48 and $3.52. The 12-month price target holds steady at $27, based on a 7.5-times forward earnings multiple.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. gained 4%, while HP Inc. advanced 3.7%.

The broader Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK rose 2.1% by 8:00 a.m. ET.

Why These Products Matter

The products now exempted from tariffs make up a significant chunk of the U.S.-China tech trade.

Data from the International Trade Centre show the U.S. exported $15 billion worth of electrical goods to China in 2024, along with $8.7 billion to Hong Kong and $7.3 billion to Taiwan. Smartphone exports alone totaled $5.6 billion to Greater China.

Imports, however, dwarf those figures. Last year, the U.S. imported $159 billion of related electronics from China and its territories, including $58.9 billion worth of smartphones.

These figures underline how deeply intertwined the two economies remain—particularly in the tech supply chain.

Before the latest White House decision, some experts estimated the price of a brand-new iPhone 16 Pro could have surged past $2,250—a jump of roughly 60%.

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