Bearish On Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) Before Earnings? Check Out This Unique ETF

Nvidia Corporation NVDA seems to have become something of a bellwether of the larger AI industry. The chipmaker makes the graphics processing units (GPUs) that well-known AI tech like ChatGPT use to run, and the company is widely expected to cash in on the emerging technology. As a result, NVDA shares have been trending up since the fall of last year and are currently up more than 200% year-to-date.

But some investors aren’t convinced the stock can keep up this momentum indefinitely – at least not without some bumps in the road. For those who may see a bubble, those bumps could translate into profitable trades if played right. Here are a few reasons some traders are bearish on NVDA. 

Unprecedented Demand Growth Could Exceed Nvidia’s Manufacturing Limits

While few are questioning the demand for Nvidia’s GPUs, rumors of a looming GPU shortage could inadvertently have a snowball effect on new AI research. AI technology takes a significant amount of time and money to develop. The hardware, the massive quantities of data, and the specialized expertise needed to create AI that lives up to the hype don’t come cheap—and then there’s the sunk time in developing and training the AI that could have been spent on R&D with a little more certainty. 

So if developers can’t be reasonably certain that the GPUs they need will even be available, some companies might decide to hold off on their AI projects until supply is a little more stable. 

Right now, NVDA’s growth has a lot of future revenue potential built into it so news that the chip maker might not be able to scale production fast enough to make enough chips to meet rising revenue forecasts could be enough to push shares down at least temporarily.

Nvidia Chip Shortage Would Create An Opening For Competition

Nvidia seems to be dominating the AI space right now, but it’s far from the only chip maker in the game. Some of its most-watched competitors include Advanced Micro Devices AMD, Intel INTC, Cerebras, and Alphabet GOOGL. If Nvidia faces a hiccup in production as it tries to scale production to meet this unprecedented demand, that could open the door just enough for these competitors to gain a foothold in the market. 

AMD is developing a family of chips that will compete with Nvidia on performance. Unlike Nvidia, AMD also offers an open software ecosystem called ROCm, giving developers a lower-cost, more flexible entry point into AI development. This could make it a key competitor among smaller developers and startups in particular. 

Intel, on the other hand, is already one of Nvidia’s strongest chip-making competitors though it’s still lagging behind Nvidia when it comes to GPUs specialized for AI. Intel acquired Habana in 2019, getting the Israel-based developer’s line of Gaudi AI chips as part of the deal. So far, the Gaudi chips aren’t as fast as Nvidia’s latest GPUs, but they are competitive on price and do offer enough performance for some lighter-duty AI tasks. The company is also working on Sapphire Rapids, a server CPU with built-in accelerators to handle generative AI. 

Nvidia might have the edge now while it’s the only major player in the game, but as these competitor products roll out, it’s going to get harder for the chip maker to hold onto its lead—especially if it’s already struggling to scale production.

Trade NVDA Dips With The AXS NVDA Bear Daily ETF

For investors who are near-term bearish on Nvidia or are looking for a short-term hedge on their existing long position, consider using the AXS 1.25x NVDA Bear Daily ETF (NVDS). 

NVDS is a leveraged ETF designed by AXS Investments to seek 125% of the inverse of NVDA’s daily performance. This leverage can help magnify the performance of each trade so that even smaller, short-lived dips have the potential to generate meaningful gains for traders. Use of this ETF also avoids having to source a borrow on NVDA from your broker which can be a hassle at times. 

At the same time, leveraged ETFs do come with additional risk and NVDS is not intended to be held for longer than a day. So it’s especially important that traders do their research and understand how to incorporate the leveraged ETF into their overall trading strategy. But when used carefully, NVDS could be a great tool for turning your bearish assumptions about Nvidia into potential yield. 

Featured photo by Caspar Camille Rubin on Unsplash.

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