US Manufacturing Crisis Worsens: Activity Shrinks For 8th Straight Month To Lowest In 3 Years

Manufacturing activity fell for the eighth consecutive month in June, according to the latest Manufacturing Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Report On Business released Monday.

The ISM survey revealed the manufacturing PMI gauge was 46 in June, down from 46.9 in May and falling short of estimates of 47. The latest June ISM Manufacturing PMI marked the lowest print since May 2020, when business activity plummeted due to Covid-19 restrictions.

“Demand remains weak, production is slowing due to lack of work, and suppliers have capacity. There are signs of more employment reduction actions in the near term,” said Timothy R. Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Simultaneously, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI for June was confirmed at 46.3 in June 2023, indicating the manufacturing sector’s biggest contraction since December. The most recent data confirms the stark contrast between the manufacturing sector’s contraction and the service sector’s continued expansion.

Chart: ISM Manufacturing PMI Falls To 3-Year Low In June

Highlights From the June ISM Manufacturing PMI

• All subindices showed contractionary readings in June.
• New orders rose by 3 percentage points (pp) from 42.6 in May to 45.6 in June, but still indicating contraction for the tenth straight month.
• Production fell by 4.4pp from 51.1 to 46.7, contracting further.
• Suppliers delivery rose by 2pp from 43.5 to 45.7, contracting further
• Inventories fell by 1.8pp from 45.8 to 44, contracting further.
• Customers’ inventories tumbled by 5.2pp from 51.4 to 46.2, entering contraction territory.
• Prices paid fell by 2.4pp from 44.2 to 41.8, worsening the contraction.
• Backlog of orders ticked 1.2pp higher from 37.5 to 38.7, but remained deep in contraction.
• New export orders fell 2.7pp from 50 to 47.3, entering contraction.
• Imports rose 2pp from 47.3 to 49.3, remaining in contraction.

Market Reactions

Traders somewhat lowered their expectations for a September rate hike by assigning a probability of 18%, down from 20% earlier. A July rate hike is priced at an 88% chance, according to the CME Group Fedwatch Tool.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which is tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF UUP, marginally eased by 0.1% after the release.

Stocks remained steady, with the S&P 500 Index, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, up 0.15%.

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