The market just slipped through what JPMorgan’s Jason Hunter calls a "fork in the road" — only this time, it’s more like tumbling through a black hole. Hunter says the recent U.S. trade policy surprise pushed the S&P 500 index below a critical level near 5500, triggering what could be an accelerated pricing of recession risks.

Key Support Breached – Now What?

Hunter highlights that the S&P 500 didn't just tiptoe past support — it gapped straight through 5500, dipped through the mid-5300s and now hovers near a major support zone in the low 5100s.

He believes a bounce is possible from here, but don't bet the house on it. "We suspect the market can stage a bear market rebound… but believe that lift will be contained and potentially short-lived unless the news flow sees a dramatic change," he warns.

The Yield Curve Has Its Own Drama

In the bond world, the 2-year Treasury note flirted with resistance at 3.48%-3.55% before backing off. Hunter now sees a ceiling at 3.825%-3.85%, but expects an eventual bullish breakout — translation: yields may start rising again soon.

How To Play It

For those looking to trade this technical twist, ETFs like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, or the ProShares UltraShort S&P500 SDS, leveraged inverse ETF for the S&P 500, offer exposure. If you're watching yields, the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF SHY, a 1–3 Year Treasury ETF, or the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEI, a 3–7 Year Treasury ETF, could be in focus.

The bottom line?

The S&P 500 just slipped past a critical technical threshold, and while a short bounce may lure some in, Hunter's charts are flashing caution. Don’t mistake this for a reset — it’s more likely the eye of the storm.

Read Next: