Bernanke: Most Hated Man in America?

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With the economy continuing to struggle, more and more Americans may be growing restless. Now, it appears as though the public may be beginning to blame Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke for the nation's ills. A recent Bloomberg poll found that 26% of Americans view the Chairman unfavorably, compared to 30% who have a favorable opinion. The results of the poll may indicate that Bernanke is more liked than disliked. However, when compared to Bernanke's ratings historically, the trend looks poor for the Chairman. In September of 2009, Bernanke was viewed favorably by 41% of respondents and only unfavorably by 22%. While the number of respondents who view him unfavorably is relatively unchanged, the sharp near 30% decline in favorability cannot be ignored. In an online CNBC poll, 96% of respondents reported that they did not have confidence in Bernanke's handling of the economy. That percentage, especially given the fact that the poll is presumably being taken by those most interested in the market, appears to be alarmingly high. Yet, it should be noted that the internet may have an anti-Fed bias. The supporters of Ron Paul frequently dominate online polls. One of Paul's primary issues has been opposition to the Federal Reserve, and his energized supporters may have influenced the poll. Regardless, with persistently high unemployment and the core rate of inflation on the rise, it may be unlikely that Bernanke becomes a household favorite anytime soon. Of course, anything is possible, and Bernanke could become a beloved figure one day. Realistically, that might require significant economic recovery. Action Items Bullish: Traders who believe that Bernanke's favorability will increase might want to consider the following trades:
  • Buy ProShares Ultra Dow 30 DDM in a long play on the Dow Jones. If Bernanke's favorability is increasing, the market might be doing better. DDM may rally in a bullish environment.
  • Buy PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Index UUP in a long play on the U.S. dollar. If the broader U.S. economy is growing and inflation is subdued, the dollar may do well and people may become supportive of Bernanke's policies.
Bearish: Traders who believe that more and more people will become upset with Bernanke may consider taking positions in the following:
  • ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 DXD is a short play on the Dow Jones. If the market declines as the economy weakens, DXD might rally.
  • SPDR Gold Trust GLD is a long play on gold. Gold has a tendency to increase in price during times of economic uncertainty. With a worsening economy, traders might move into gold, which may be bullish for GLD.
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