Unemployment Claims Rise More Than Expected, Boosting Hopes For Rate Cuts As Cracks In Labor Market Emerge

Signs of a cooling U.S. labor market are becoming more evident, increasingly reinforcing investor beliefs that the time has come for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

New unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, while continuing jobless claims reached their highest levels since November 2021, according to the Department of Labor’s report on Tuesday.

Simultaneously reported, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surprisingly spiked from 1.3 points to 13.9 points – the highest level in three months – beating expectations of 2.9.

Jobless Claims Report: Key Highlights

• Weekly jobless claims rose from an upwardly revised 223,000 to 243,000 for the week ending July 13, topping economist expectation of 230,000 as TradingEconomics data shows.
• The 4-week average of weekly jobless claims – which smooths out week-on-week volatility – rose from 233,750 to 234,750.
• Continuing claims inched up from 1,847 million to 1,867 million, reaching levels unseen since late November 2021.
• The highest increases in initial claims were in Michigan (+10,578), New York (+5,247), Indiana (+2,835), Ohio (+1,604), and Tennessee (+1,166), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,672), New Jersey (-5,517), Georgia (-1,900), Texas (-1,809), and Minnesota (-1,078).

Market Reactions

Both Treasury yields and the dollar remained broadly flat following the release of the unemployment insurance claims report. Concurrently, the European Central Bank left key interest rates unchanged, but failed to pre-commit to a September rate cut.

Futures on major U.S. indices were positive during Thursday premarket trading. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.6% by 08:37 a.m. ET, while those on the S&P 500 were 0.4% higher. Futures on the Dow Jones Index eased slightly by 0.1%.

On Wednesday, the tech-heavy index, as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ suffered its worst day in nearly a year, amid broadbased drops in chipmakers.

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