France's Credit Rating Downgrade Sparks Market Unease: 'Public Finances Will Be Materially Weaker'

French equities dropped on Monday after Moody's downgraded France's credit rating to Aa3, citing worsening public finances and political instability.

The CAC 40 index, which tracks France's largest companies and is mirrored by the iShares MSCI France Index Fund EWQ, fell 0.9% by 8:20 a.m. in New York, eyeing its third straight session in the red.

Moody's: France's Fiscal Challenges Are Escalating

In a report issued on Saturday, Moody's highlighted France's high debt burden, ongoing political instability, and diminished ability to consolidate public finances as key drivers for the downgrade.

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The outlook was revised from negative to stable, signaling that no further changes to the rating are imminent in the near term.

According to the credit rating agency, France’s public finances are expected to deteriorate over the next three years, with fiscal deficits likely to remain elevated due to political fragmentation. Moody’s forecasts that efforts to cut deficits will stall, diverging from its previous projections in October 2024.

“The decision to downgrade France’s ratings to Aa3 reflects our view that the country’s public finances will be substantially weakened over the coming years. This is because political fragmentation is more likely to impede meaningful fiscal consolidation,” the agency wrote in the report.  

Political Turmoil Deepens Fiscal Concerns

The downgrade followed a historic no-confidence vote in the National Assembly, which led to the ousting of Prime Minister Michel Barnier and his minority government last week.

Barnier's controversial 2025 austerity budget, which aimed to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP, down from 6.1% in 2024, through €60 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes, faced fierce opposition from both left-wing and far-right lawmakers.

President Emmanuel Macron responded by appointing François Bayrou, a centrist and longtime ally, as the new prime minister—his fourth this year. Bayrou, known for his criticism of France's fiscal trajectory, acknowledged the “Himalayan” challenge of stabilizing public finances, signaling that austerity efforts may face further political resistance.

Key Risks to Watch Ahead

France’s downgrade to Aa3 introduces a fresh set of challenges that could ripple through its economy and beyond, starting with the threat of rising borrowing costs.

Yields on 10-year French sovereign bonds are currently trading slightly above 3%, marking a spread of about 80 basis points versus German bunds.

This increase in financing costs would add pressure to an already fragile fiscal position, further straining the government's ability to manage its towering public debt, which currently exceeds 112% of the gross domestic product.

The second, and perhaps more daunting, risk is continued political instability. With no parliamentary majority, Prime Minister François Bayrou will struggle to pass critical fiscal reforms, risking delays in deficit reduction.

The repercussions of France’s fiscal and political troubles could extend far beyond its borders, potentially triggering a European spillover effect. As the eurozone’s second-largest economy, France plays a pivotal role in the bloc's overall economic health.

On Monday the Euro Stoxx 600 index – as broadly tracked by the iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF EZU – slipped 0.4%.

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