Fintech Stocks: Analyst Foresees Revenue Surge for BILL, Flywire, Global Payments, Mastercard and Shopify

Seaport analyst Jeff Cantwell initiated coverage Thursday of the fintech sector, including BILL Holdings, Inc BILL, Fiserv, Inc FI, Fidelity National Information Services, Inc FIS, Flywire Corp FLYW, Global Payments Inc GPN, Mastercard Inc MA, PayPal Holdings, Inc PYPL, Shopify Inc SHOP, Block, Inc SQ, Visa Inc V.

Many companies from this list will be participating in the discussion at the Benzinga Fintech Deal Day & Awards in New York City on Nov. 14, 2023.

BILL’s (Buy; $144 price target) combination of best-in-class AP/AR software and emerging flywheel, including Divvy, Invoice2Go, and Finmark, create a compelling long-term bull case for the shares. 

Revenue growth of over 20% annually, robust gross margins (>80%), and improving profitability should support the shares through the coming cycle. 

Block’s (Neutral) current valuation reflects that the market believes the company has squandered its leadership position in Fintech. He believes Block needs to reaccelerate top-line (gross profit) growth to capture investors’ minds. 

FIS (Neutral) is a company in flux, changing its management and streamlining itself by selling its Worldpay business. He thinks it will take time for FIS to fully rebuild its ‘story’ and turn things around with the stock. 

Fiserv (Neutral) is a well-managed company, and shares have outperformed over the past two years due to its strong top-line growth, but he expects an eventual slowdown in FY24 and beyond due to impacts from higher for longer interest rates. The bottom line is that Fiserv is a quality compounder, but the stock looks pricey on a relative basis.

Flywire (Buy; $40 price target) is a high-quality software/payments company with a solid top-line story and a growing focus on its margins and profitability. Annual revenue growth of 30% looks achievable for Flywire as it continues to penetrate the sizeable TAMs of its four key verticals.

Check out Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event in New York City on Nov. 14, 2023.

Global Payments (Buy; $140 price target) has successfully repositioned itself in its Merchant and Issuer segments over the past year. He thinks the company is now well positioned to accelerate its revenue and earnings growth in the next two years, eventually resulting in the stock rerating. He expects further headway by GPN in B2B, which is noteworthy due to its sizeable TAM.

Given Mastercard’s (Buy; $465 price target) positioning as a high-quality company, a relatively defensive name in the space, and with the company’s EPS growth expected to be in the mid-to-high teens in FY24 and FY25, notwithstanding the coming macro slowdown, he thinks Mastercard can “thread the needle,” and its shares can appreciate from here. 

New CEO Alex Chriss’ arrival creates a fresh opportunity for PayPal (Neutral) to reinvigorate investors’ expectations about the company’s outlook. Meanwhile, macro remains an ongoing headwind for PayPal, and looking ahead, he sees greater risk for downside than the potential for upside to consensus FY24 and FY25 revenue and EPS estimates, on higher for longer impacts. 

Shopify (Buy; $64 price target) is transitioning towards becoming the software and payments’ platform-of-choice’ for a much more comprehensive range of merchants than its traditional base of SMBs, including enterprise-sized customers. He expects a substantial expansion in Shopify’s revenue over the next two years, on sustained strong growth in GMV/GPV coupled with healthy attach. He is above consensus revenue in FY24 and FY25. Concurrently, he sees an opportunity for Shopify to improve substantially on profitability. 

He likes Visa (Neutral)  for its overall quality, moat, and unique blend of offensive and defensive attributes, which serves investors well in this challenging market environment. However, the macro is teetering, and expect both consumer and commercial spending to slow from here. Meanwhile, client incentives are rising for Visa over time and clawing into gross revenue (>27% of gross revenues in FY23). The bottom line is that he is below consensus revenue and EPS in FY24 and FY25.