Revisiting Axsome After Its 800% Year-To-Date Rally

Axsome Therapeutics Inc AXSM stock has been a high flier ever since it hit a record intraday low of $1.94 in late December.

Benzinga alerted readers to the stock when it had advanced by about 200 percent in January.

Tracking The Stock

Shares of Axsome saw a spike Jan. 7, when it reported positive midstage results for its lead asset AXS-05 in treating patients with major depressive disorder, or MDD. Axsome, a small-cap, actively traded biotech, which works on novel therapies for central nervous system disorders,

After being largely rangebound between $8 and $10 until mid-March, Axsome shares began a steady climb.

The stock has gained roughly 800 percent year-to-date.

Source: Yahoo

For much of the upward move, volumes have been significant, lending credence to the rally.

With a 14-day relative strength index, or RSI, of 70, the stock is well into overbought territory.

Has the stock run ahead of its fundamentals — or is there still an attractive entry point for investors who missed the bus?

Clinical Trial Progress

Axsome is set to commence a late-stage study of AXS-05 in the second quarter.

The Phase 2 ASCEND study that compared AXS-05, dextromethorphan and bupropion, vs. the active comparator bupropion, met the primary endpoint.

The company is also set to initiate an open-label safety trial of the candidate in MDD and treatment-resistant depression, or TRD, also in the second quarter.

Source: Axsome

Upcoming Clinical Trial Readouts

• Topline data from the Phase 2 CONCERT trial of AXS-12 in narcolepsy: second quarter.

• Topline data for the Phase 3 STRIDE-1 trial of AXS-05 in TRD: second half of 2019.

• Topline data of the placebo-controlled trial of AXS-05 in MDD: second half of 2019.

• Topline data for the Phase 3 MOMENTUM trial of AXS-07 in migraine: second half of 2019.

• Topline data from the Phase 2/3 ADVANCE-1 trial of AXS-05 in Alzheimer's disease agitation: first half of 2020.

The Sell-Side Take 

The average analyst recommendation for Axsome is a Strong Buy, with an average price target of $33,  according to TipRanks. This suggests roughly 30-percent upside from current levels. The Street-high price target for Axsome is $50.

Axsome shares closed Thursday's session down 1.97 percent at $24.42. 

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