Confidence Boost From Ingrezza Sales: Analyst Upgrades Neurocrine Biosciences

BMO Capital Markets has upgraded Neurocrine Biosciences Inc NBIX from Underperform to Market Perform, with a price target of $96, up from $91.

The upgrade follows BMO's recent proprietary survey of 25 psychiatrists treating patients with tardive dyskinesia, a movement disorder characterized by uncontrollable, abnormal, and repetitive movements of the face, torso, and/or other body parts.

Following this survey, the analyst says its confidence has increased in the durability of Ingrezza, given physicians' noted increased coverage for the drug, limited risk of competitor market share capture, and lack of concerns using telehealth to continue diagnosing and treating tardive dyskinesia as virtual patient visits continue. 

The analyst models $2.47 billion in Ingrezza sales by 2029 vs. a consensus of $3.05 billion. 

Also Read: Neurocrine Biosciences Clocks 35% Revenue Growth In Q1, Misses On Bottom-Line Performance.

For Q2 FY23, it sees $427 million vs. $432 million consensus; for FY23, $1.71B vs. consensus $1.77B (guidance is $1.67B-$1.77B).

The company could also positively update expectations in the Q2 earnings release, the analyst says.

BMO also notes that Neurocrine's pipeline lacks strength and depth, and recent failures in readouts have lowered expectations for key readouts for CAH, focal onset seizure, and anhedonia, all of which are expected 4Q23. 

Earlier this year, Neurocrine Biosciences and Voyager Therapeutics Inc VYGR formed a new strategic collaboration to advance multiple gene therapies for neurological diseases.

Price Action: NBIX shares are up 0.23% at $94.76 on the last check Thursday.