Intercept Pharma Gets Double Upgrade: Analyst Says OCA Combo Therapy Can Extend PBC Business

HC Wainwright has upgraded Intercept Pharmaceuticals Inc ICPT to Buy from Sell, with a price target of $19, up from $8.

In June, Intercept's obeticholic acid (OCA) in NASH received a second CRL, prompting the company to discontinue the NASH program entirely. 

The move involved restructuring but positions the company to be profitable next year based on its PBC business with Ocaliva, given the CRL, this was widely expected.

The analyst also notes that the company's interim Phase 2 dose-ranging data from its Ocaliva + bezafibrate combination was unexpectedly strong.

If approved, CymaBay Therapeutics Inc's CBAY seladelpar and GSK Plc's GSK linerixibat would be preferred agents over Genfit SA's GNFT elafibranor. This may also be true of Oca+Beza if more conclusive evidence establishes its ability to reduce pruritus (itch).

The analyst says Intercept may continue to grow and significantly expand the PBC market along with CymaBay, GSK, and, to a lesser extent, Ipsen/GENFIT. 

Noting strong interim results of Oca+Beza from Study 747-213, the analyst says it can potentially establish best-in-class clinical benefits in treating PBC.

The projected Oca+Beza revenue from mid-2028 through 2036, assuming a peak market penetration of 20% in 2034. It expects moderate the projected decline in Ocaliva monotherapy sales beginning in 2025 from new market entrants.

Price Action: ICPT shares are up 2.96% at $11.48 on the last check Thursday.