Autolus Therapeutics' Obe-Cel's Shows Compelling Safety Over Gilead's Drug For Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

Truist has raised the price target for Autolus Therapeutics PLC AUTL from $6 to $9 with a Buy rating on Obe-cel's prospects.

The analyst Asthika Goonewardene sees Obe-cel as poised to be a new standard of care and the preferred CAR-T in adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) over Tecartus (Brexucabtagene autoleucel). 

Kite Pharma, a Gilead Sciences Inc GILD, sells Tecartus.

Autolus is on track to get its first CAR-T approved next year, with favorable manufacturing and logistics set in place. 

Truist sees an inflection point for Autolus shares as the company approaches its first commercial launch in oncology but also pivots into autoimmune disease.

Obe-cel's compelling safety profile over Tecartus and potentially better efficacy should make it the leading CAR-T therapy in adult ALL.

The analyst increased Obe-cel market penetration to 60%, reflecting that it will be the dominant CAR-T in adult ALL. The analyst forecasts peak sales of $300 million. We increased Obe-cel's probability of success to 100% in R/R Adult ALL based on our strong conviction that it will get approved. 

Durability data at the 12-month landmark will be of interest. Further, this would be highly attractive if most patients remain in remission and without further therapy at the next data cut. Dr. Jae Park from MSK thinks 50% of patients remaining in remission at 12 months without a transplant would be a very significant achievement.

Price Action: AUTL shares are up 11.00% at $2.93 on the last check Thursday.