Moderna Stock Q4 Earnings Preview: RSV mRNA Vaccine Scrutiny, Diminishing Spikevax Revenue, FDA Approval In Focus

Moderna Inc MRNA will be reporting its fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 22. Wall Street expects a negative 99 cents in EPS and $2.53 billion in revenues as the company reports before market hours.

Moderna is renowned for its development of mRNA-based vaccines, including the COVID-19 vaccine.

Here's what analysts are focusing on, and how the stock currently maps against Wall Street estimates.

Moderna Investment Thesis 

Moderna stock’s recovery from November 2023 lows and resilient buyer interest in the face of third-quarter earnings setbacks appeared to signal a potential recovery.

Despite a recent dip linked to disappointing RSV vaccine data, the anticipated FDA approval in 2024 and aggressive product rollouts provide optimism.

Moderna’s prominence during the pandemic has led to a household name status, but challenges are emerging as mRNA vaccines face scrutiny post-pandemic.

Moderna’s 83% stock decline from pandemic highs of more than $450 a share reflects concerns over diminishing Spikevax revenue and uncertainties surrounding mRNA vaccines beyond the pandemic. The company’s exclusive focus on mRNA vaccines introduced significant risk.

The upcoming challenge lies in Moderna’s RSV mRNA vaccine, competing with established providers such as GSK GSK and Pfizer Inc PFE. Success here is pivotal for the entire mRNA vaccine pipeline. A cautious “wait-and-see” approach is warranted until Moderna proves its competitive strength and sales performance against traditional vaccines in the post-pandemic landscape.

Also Read: Critical Insights From Moderna Analyst Ratings: What You Need To Know

Moderna Analysts' Focus, Consensus Ratings

Q4 Analysts' Focus: Analysts will closely monitor Moderna’s upcoming earnings to assess the impact of recent setbacks in the RSV vaccine data and seek clarity on the company’s strategic plans for FDA approval in 2024.

Analysts of Moderna stock would also be assessing the potential benefits of an aggressive product rollout, and Moderna’s strategies to navigate uncertainties and competition in the mRNA vaccine market.

Ratings & Consensus Estimates: Consensus analyst ratings on Moderna stock stand at a Buy currently with a price target of $154.44.

MRNA Price Action: Moderna stock was trading down 0.27% at $86.76 at the time of publication Wednesday.

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