Zinger Key Points
- Leerink no longer anticipates that a competing product will launch in 2026, thus boosting long-term Cobenfy projections.
- Leerink analyst estimates the potential for peak Cobenfy sales of over $10 billion if it succeeds in additional indications.
Leerink Partners has upgraded Bristol-Myers Squibb & Co BMY, stating that the company enters a catalyst-rich period in 2025-2027 beyond Cobenfy (a schizophrenia drug) and milvexian (anticoagulant).
The analyst expects upward pressure on Cobenfy (KarXT) and milvexian consensus expectations to drive stock outperformance from current levels.
Leerink has upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform, with a price target of $73, up from the previous $55, and adds that Bristol-Myers stock trades a substantial discount to the Diversified Biopharmaceutical median due to constrained EPS growth through 2029.
But the U.S. pharma giant’s exposure to loss of exclusivity (LOE) pressures diminishes in 2030+ relative to peers.
On Monday, AbbVie Inc ABBV stock fell after two trials investigating emraclidine as a once-daily, oral monotherapy treatment for adults with schizophrenia failed two Phase 2 trials.
With AbbVie’s emraclidine Phase 2 trial failures, Leerink no longer anticipates that a competing product will launch in 2026, thus boosting long-term Cobenfy projections, including 2030E sales from $4.2 billion to $5.7 billion.
“Cobenfy appears likely to be a pipeline within a product, with limited competitive threats from stand-alone M4 candidates,” Leerink analyst writes.
Leerink analyst estimates the potential for peak Cobenfy sales of over $10 billion if it succeeds in additional indications since Eli Lilly And Co’s LLY Zyprexa generated $5 billion in peak revenue in 2010 at much lower prices.
The analyst has also increased milvexian sales projections, with 2030E sales from $3.1 billion to $3.9 billion.
“We see the potential for milvexian peak sales to be above our 2025E Eliquis sales estimate of $14.4 billion if it delivers a superior benefit-risk profile in its atrial fibrillation Phase 3 in early 2027.”
Price Action: BMY stock is down 0.74% at $59.37 at the last check on Tuesday.
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Courtesy of Bristol Myers Squibb
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