Zinger Key Points
- Eli Lilly forecasts $45 billion in 2024 revenue, a 32% growth but $400 million below Q3 guidance.
- Mounjaro and Zepbound expected to contribute $3.5 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively, to 2024 revenue.
Just before the JP Morgan healthcare conference, Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE: LLY) announced that it expects 2024 full-year worldwide revenue to be approximately $45.0 billion, representing a 32% growth compared to the previous year versus the consensus of $45.50 billion.
The company's expected 2024 revenue is $400 million, or about 3%, below the guidance range issued during the third-quarter earnings. The guidance includes approximately $3.5 billion for Mounjaro and $1.9 billion for Zepbound.
During the conference, David Ricks outlined two reasons for the guidance update:
- The diabetes GLP market, in December, outperforms the rest of the quarter and in year this did not happen…The CEO said this could be just a guess. The company said it did not predict it. "This year that didn't happen in GLP-1," said Ricks, who speculated that changes in Medicare Part D and insurance edits have prevented patients from doubling up their prescriptions at the end of the year to avoid deductible costs early in the following year."
- Stocking levels were a big discussion during Q3 results. The company dropped about 8 selling days in that quarter alone. The company expected a buildback at the end of the year because every year, a couple of days of buildback happen, and it did not happen this year.
Regarding the guidance approach, the CEO noted, "The scale of this business and the way it's been growing, the consumer part of it, along with the stocking dynamics, it's just been a learning [experience] for us," Ricks said. "Our forecasters really nailed the rest of the portfolio. We don't have a problem with forecasting. It's just, this market is quite different."
Goldman analyst Chris Shibutani writes, "We expect this preliminary 4Q results to heighten concerns relating to underlying demand dynamics, which initially emerged at a broader level amongst investors during the 3Q results and guidance update."
Price Action: LLY stock is up 0.59% at $749.28 at the last check on Wednesday.
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Photo via Eli Lilly and Company
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