JP Morgan Cut Apellis' Price Forecasts, Cites Longer Peak Sales Timing For Syfovre

On Tuesday, JP Morgan highlighted its survey related to Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s APLS Syfovre and Astellas Pharma Inc’s ALPMF ALPMY Izervay.

On average, surveyed physicians treated around 388 geographic atrophy patients and most of them had used Syfovre and Astellas’ Izervay (~80%).

JP Morgan analyst Anupam Rama writes that the survey results point to steadier growth for Syfovre/branded geographic atrophy products over the next 12 months versus an inflection-type growth.

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Survey data indicates that perceptions of Syfovre and Izervay have remained largely unchanged before and after the Izervay CRL and label update. Syfovre is seen as slightly more effective, while Izervay has a safety advantage.

The geographic atrophy market is expected to respond well to promotional efforts. Over time, Apellis’ strategy—including direct-to-consumer marketing, targeting younger physicians, increasing prescribing depth and emphasizing its unique dosing—should drive growth.

The company generated Syfovre sales of $167.8 million and $611.9 million for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, respectively.

It delivered approximately 94,000 Syfovre doses to physician practices in the fourth quarter, including approximately 89,000 commercial vials and 4,600 samples. More than 510,000 Syfovre injections, including clinical trials, are estimated to have been administered since launch through December 2024.

Taking a cautious view, the analyst projects a longer timeline for Syfovre to reach peak sales, valuing it along with Empaveli (for PNH) at around the mid-$30s per share—still leaving room for growth from current levels.

JP Morgan maintains an Overweight rating while lowering the price target to $45 from $54, based on extending time to peak and peak sales for Syfovre and adjustments to expenses.

Price Action: APLS stock is down 1.91% at $24.63 at the last check Tuesday.

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