Eli Lilly & Co. LLY shares staged their sharpest single-day rally in nearly 25 years Thursday, after unveiling data from a pivotal trial that could cement its leadership in a weight-loss drug market projected to more than triple in size by 2030.

The stock surged, closing the day up 14.36% to $839.96, marking its best performance since June 2000.

In a Thursday note, Goldman Sachs analyst Asad Haider, CFA said Eli Lilly's first Phase 3 trial of orforglipron — a once-daily oral treatment for type 2 diabetes and obesity — hit its top-line targets with best-case scenario results across weight loss, blood sugar control and safety.

The Data That Moved the Market

Lilly's ACHIEVE-1 trial evaluated orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) receptor agonist, in adults with type 2 diabetes.

At the highest 36mg dose, patients saw an average weight reduction of 7.9% over 40 weeks — translating to 16 pounds of weight loss, substantially above the placebo-adjusted rate of 6.3%.

For context, that outperforms Novo Nordisk A/S NVO 's Rybelsus — currently the only oral GLP-1 treatment available — which achieved a 4.9% weight loss at its peak dosage in the SUSTAIN-1 trial.

In addition, orforglipron delivered A1C reductions of up to 1.6%, aligning with injectable semaglutide's performance and hitting a critical target in glycemic control.

More than 65% of participants on the highest dose achieved an A1C level at or below 6.5%, a threshold defined by the American Diabetes Association as the benchmark for controlled diabetes.

Discontinuation due to side effects was 8% at the top dose, and there were no reported liver injury signals — two key safety indicators watched closely by investors after setbacks in rival studies.

Why Wall Street Is Cheering

Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that the trial marks "an important clearing event for LLY shares," especially after recent disappointments from rivals like Novo Nordisk A/S and Amgen Inc. AMGN in their respective obesity pipelines.

The investment bank reiterated a Buy rating and $888 price target on the stock, citing Lilly's potential to dominate a market expected to balloon from $28 billion today to $95 billion by 2030.

Their internal forecasts see risk-adjusted peak sales for orforglipron hitting $23.5 billion by 2035, with commercial rollout starting globally in 2026. That's well above the Street's consensus of $16.8 billion.

"This data trends toward our bull case scenario," Goldman said, noting that investor caution ahead of the binary trial event was likely keeping shares from rallying sooner.

Is Orforglipron The ‘Ozempic In A Pill'?

Tim Anderson, equity analyst at Bank of America, said Thursday's results were "pretty much a best-case scenario," covering all four key investor watchpoints: weight loss, blood sugar control, tolerability and safety.

Calling orforglipron a potential "Ozempic in a pill," Anderson highlighted its small molecule structure as a key differentiator.

Unlike Novo's Rybelsus, which is a peptide with cold-chain storage limitations, orforglipron's easier manufacturing and oral delivery method could unlock demand in emerging markets, where injectables face logistical hurdles.

"Positive results like these, in a skittish market, should be received well," Anderson said, adding that the company remains one of the two dominant incumbents in the diabetes and obesity drug space.

Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating and $1,000 price objective, citing Eli Lilly's superior growth metrics: while the stock trades at roughly three times the average pharma price-to-earnings multiple, its expected earnings-per-share growth is five to six times higher than peers, making it relatively attractive on a PEG basis.

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