Zinger Key Points
- When a team wins the Super Bowl by a three-digit margin, the S&P 500 moves just 4.9% higher by year end, on average.
- Alternatively, when a team wins the big game by 21 points or more, the S&P 500 gains an average of 13.6%.
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Despite the sports-betting excitement and anticipation surrounding Super Bowl LVII, traditional financial markets also closely monitor the outcome of the game.
The Big Game: The Kansas City Chiefs became Super Bowl LVII Champions on Sunday night, coming back from a 10-point deficit against the Philadelphia Eagles to win by a narrow 3-point margin, thanks to a game-winning field goal at the end of the fourth quarter.
It’s not so much the Chiefs winning that’s bad news for the S&P 500 SPY, it’s more so that pesky margin of 3-points.
What Happened: Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick scoured Super Bowl and S&P 500 data going back to 1967 and found that when a team wins the Super Bowl by a single-digit margin, the S&P 500 has a much smaller chance of closing the year with higher gains.
To me, it isn't about the AFC or NFC.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 6, 2023
You should actually be rooting for a blowout in the Super Bowl.
S&P 500 up 13.6% on avg when it is a 21 point or more blowout.
Single digit game? S&P 500 up less than 5% on avg.#SuperBowl2023 pic.twitter.com/v3VQgsEcjV
On average, the S&P 500 gains just 4.9% when a team wins the Super Bowl by a single-digit margin, and the index has a 59.1% chance of ending the year higher.
Alternatively, when a team wins the big game by a blowout (21-points or more), the S&P 500 gains an average of 13.6%, and has an 84.6% chance of finishing up for the year.
Why It Matters: While these findings may seem surprising, it highlights the interconnectedness of various industries and events, including sports and finance.
The outcome of the Super Bowl may not directly cause a change in the stock market, but the correlation is certainly worth noting.
Also Read: This Super Bowl Commercial Will Feature Tesla Model Y, Meme Kid And Puppies — See It Here First
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