Chiefs Winning Super Bowl LVII Could Spell Trouble For S&P 500 And Investors: Here's Why

Despite the sports-betting excitement and anticipation surrounding Super Bowl LVII, traditional financial markets also closely monitor the outcome of the game.

The Big Game: The Kansas City Chiefs became Super Bowl LVII Champions on Sunday night, coming back from a 10-point deficit against the Philadelphia Eagles to win by a narrow 3-point margin, thanks to a game-winning field goal at the end of the fourth quarter.

It’s not so much the Chiefs winning that’s bad news for the S&P 500 SPY, it’s more so that pesky margin of 3-points.

What Happened: Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick scoured Super Bowl and S&P 500 data going back to 1967 and found that when a team wins the Super Bowl by a single-digit margin, the S&P 500 has a much smaller chance of closing the year with higher gains.

To me, it isn't about the AFC or NFC.

You should actually be rooting for a blowout in the Super Bowl.

S&P 500 up 13.6% on avg when it is a 21 point or more blowout.

Single digit game? S&P 500 up less than 5% on avg.#SuperBowl2023 pic.twitter.com/v3VQgsEcjV

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 6, 2023

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On average, the S&P 500 gains just 4.9% when a team wins the Super Bowl by a single-digit margin, and the index has a 59.1% chance of ending the year higher.

Alternatively, when a team wins the big game by a blowout (21-points or more), the S&P 500 gains an average of 13.6%, and has an 84.6% chance of finishing up for the year.

Why It Matters: While these findings may seem surprising, it highlights the interconnectedness of various industries and events, including sports and finance.

The outcome of the Super Bowl may not directly cause a change in the stock market, but the correlation is certainly worth noting.

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