AMC's All-Time Lows May Go Lower As Silver Screens Fade To Black

Shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc AMC are trading at all-time lows.

That’s despite the stock completing a 1-10 reverse split and trading in and out of the $12 level on Monday.

But, it may not be AMC's more near-term issues that are causing the sell-off. Its APE shares, architected by CEO Adam Aron, didn't give the boost that executives expected, AMC bear Rich Greenfield says.

"Box office still down 15% vs 2019 and release calendar collapsing due to double strikes," Greenfield said Monday. AMC's "2024 slate also looks weaker than 2023."

Both statements are true. AMC domestic yearly box office is already down 14.7% over 2019, according to BoxOfficeMojo. And it may get worse over the next year. A number of movies are being delayed due to strikes in Hollywood.

Let's unpack this.

AMC Suffers A One-Two Punch

The industry is reeling from ongoing strikes, starting with the Writers Guild of America and followed by the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA, which represents about 160,000 Hollywood professionals.

The strikes have essentially halted film and television production worldwide, affecting everything from award shows to box office revenues.

SAG-AFTRA, whose members voted 98% in favor of the strike, is demanding better pay and working conditions, particularly in light of shifting industry dynamics. Among their concerns are declining residuals, stagnant wages, and the potential misuse of artificial intelligence in replicating performances.

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Movie Delays, A Cascade Effect: Greenfield particularly noted the collapse in the box office prospects for the fourth quarter of this year, a sentiment echoed by the array of delays. Several high-profile movies and TV shows have already announced delays in their release dates.

The list is extensive, featuring titles like “Challengers” starring Zendaya, and Quentin Tarantino's next movie, “The Movie Critic.”

Near term issues aside, Greenfield also touched on future outlook, saying that the 2024 slate looks weaker than 2023. Given the ripple effect of the strikes, studios are also facing issues in lining up strong future portfolios.

Delayed productions like “Kraven the Hunter,” “Bad Boys 4,” and even the next iteration of the “Mortal Kombat” series underscore the challenges AMC might see next year.

AMC’s profitability largely hinges on its ability to pack theaters, especially with blockbuster movies that drive snack bar sales. But strikes and rescheduled releases are decimating that model, painting a bleak future for the theater chain.

The company will have to pivot hard or find a new lifeline to avoid becoming another casualty in an industry undergoing seismic shifts.

AMC Price action: Shares of AMC are trading 3.97% lower to $11.98, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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