Gene Munster, the managing partner of Deepwater Asset Management, who previously said that eventually 10% of Apple Inc.'s AAPL revenue will come from its first-generation mixed-reality headset, has now predicted that Vision Pro will take 730 days or 2 years to hit the one million unit sales milestone — a slower pace than the iPhone’s initial uptake.
What Happened: On Monday, Munster took to X (formerly Twitter) and shared his comparison of the Vision Pro’s sales to the iPhone’s initial sales in 2007.
He noted that while the iPhone sold 270,000 units on its opening weekend, bringing in about $122 million in revenue, the Vision Pro likely sold about 150,000 units, translating to approximately $555 million in revenue.
Despite the higher revenue, Munster estimates it will take the Vision Pro considerably longer to reach the one million unit sales milestone. “It's going to take time for the momentum to build, and eventually it will hit.”
Previously, Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, shared his estimates saying that Cupertino sold between 160,000 to 180,000 Vision Pro units on the first pre-order weekend.
However, he noted that Vision Pro's "shipping times remained unchanged 48 hours after pre-orders opened," indicating that "demand may quickly taper off after the core fans and heavy users place their orders."
Why It Matters: Munster’s prediction reflects a degree of skepticism around the rapid adoption of the Vision Pro. Previous poll results shared by Munster suggested a disparity between tech adoption trends and the enthusiasm for Vision Pro.
According to the results shared in October 2023, only 16% of participants expressed intentions to buy the Vision Pro within the year, while 25% planned to purchase a new phone.
The Vision Pro’s high price tag, starting at $3,499, could be a potential barrier to mass adoption, despite some rationalizations that this cost could pave the way for future, cheaper versions of the headset.
Previously, Bloomberg columnist, Mark Gurman reported that Apple intends to shift its business strategy to focus on its wearable technology, including the Vision Pro, instead of its most successful product, iPhone, in 2024.
Photo courtesy: Apple
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