Netflix Stock 'Firing On All Cylinders': 10 Analysts React To Q4 Beat, Guidance, Price Increases

Netflix Inc NFLX analysts call the fourth quarter beat one of the best in company history and changed price targets based on the content slate, price increases and strong advertising momentum.

The Netflix Analysts: Macquarie analyst Tim Nollen reiterated an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $965 to $1,150.

KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $1,000 to $1,100.

Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $950 to $1,100.

Canaccord Genuity analyst Maria Ripps upgraded Netflix from Hold to Buy and raised the price target from $940 to $1,150.

Needham analyst Laura Martin reiterated a Buy rating and raised the price target from $800 to $1,150.

BMO Capital analyst Brian Pitz reiterated an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $1,000 to $1,175.

Raymond James analyst Andrew Marok maintained a Market Perform rating with no price target.

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth reiterated an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $1,000 to $1,150.

Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell reiterated an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $950 to $1,100.

Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich reiterated a Buy rating and raised the price target from $1,000 to $1,175.

Macquarie on NFLX: The company went "out with a bang," reporting 19 million added paid subscriptions in its last quarter of reporting this key metric, Nollen said in a new investor note.

"Attention now turns to revenue as well as OI and FCF," Nollen said referencing operating income and free cash flow.

The analyst said Netflix saw higher subscribers thanks to the Mike Tyson and Jake Paul boxing match, NFL games on Christmas and could see more growth from its WWE partnership.

"WWE, which began in January, has driven increased engagement with on-demand viewing up 25% from viewers the day after the live event."

KeyBanc on NFLX: Raised guidance for fiscal 2025 could reflect higher subscriber figures and a price increase, Patterson said in a new investor note.

The analyst raised revenue estimates due to higher paid membership figures and higher revenue per member.

"We believe a strong 2025 content slate can continue drive paid membership gains," Patterson said

With the company choosing not to report membership figures going forward, "revenue becomes the primary metric to value Netflix," Patterson added.

"We are increasingly confident Netflix can sustain low-teens revenue growth through 2026E."

Guggenheim on NFLX: A record quarter for subscriber adds could be just the beginning for Netflix's latest round of growth, Morris said in a new note.

"The company announced plan price increases in several markets, including the U.S., and raised full-year financial guidance despite incremental FX headwinds versus the initial 2025 outlook. As good as it gets? We don't think so," Morris said.

The analyst highlighted Netflix's comments on its growing total market size and strong viewer engagement as optimistic items for the company's future.

"We see earlier stage initiatives — led by advertising sales, live content including sports and events, and video game offerings — as incremental contributors to sustained growth in the coming years."

Canaccord on NFLX: Record subscriber growth, price increases and momentum in the advertising business are highlights from the company's earnings report, Ripps said in a new investor note.

"Netflix reported strong fourth quarter results, with paid memberships, revenue, and profitability all coming in ahead of expectations," Ripps said.

The analysts called the 2025 content slate as "very healthy" with new seasons of "Squid Game," Stranger Things" and "Wednesday," along with an increased number of live events.

Ripps said they incorrectly downgraded Netflix stock less than a year ago citing slower growth and a premium valuation.

"That stance clearly turned out to be incorrect."

Needham on NFLX: A strong content slate, live sports and the continued crackdown on paid sharing led to a strong subscriber figure and beat, Martin said in a new note.

Martin said the subscriber growth in the U.S. and Canada was helped by two NFL games on Christmas, with the other subscriber adds being unrelated to the NFL.

"Despite strong viewership of its two Christmas Day NFL games, NFLX reaffirmed its lack of interest in ‘full season' live sports owing to high costs," Martin said.

Failing to disclose subscriber additions or average revenue per member figures could add risks to the stock, the analyst added.

BMO on NFLX: Strong advertising growth could be a key item to watch for Netflix's future, Pitz said in a new note.

"We model ~$3B in ad revenue by 2026E," Pitz said.

The analyst said advertising revenue grew two times in 2024 and is expected to two times again in 2025.

"AVOD monetization potential remains a significant opportunity."

Pitz said the May 2025 upfront season could serve as a key catalyst for Netflix.  

"We believe a robust content slate combined with layering in ‘shoulder' live events will result in ongoing subs growth in the U.S. and globally."

Raymond James on NFLX: Netflix's fourth-quarter results and 2025 guidance were strong across all metrics, Marok said in a new note.

"This quarter was as strong as we have seen from the company since the peaks of the pandemic, with execution across various areas including live events, ads, and margins all pointing upward," Marok said.

The analyst said Netflix's live events strategy is "proven out" and more similar big sporting events are likely.

"Netflix is also leaning into event-driven programming in 2025, with a full year of WWE Raw and what will likely be a number of unannounced unique events in the sports and comedy genres."

JPMorgan on NFLX: The streaming giant may have eliminated concerns about high expectations and FX headwinds with a huge subscriber figure and 2025 guidance, Anmuth said in a new note.

"NFLX enters the new year firing on all cylinders — benefiting from an extremely strong content slate, seeing increased engagement per member household and healthy retention, raising prices in key markets including the U.S., and shifting the ad business from the crawl to walk stage," Anmuth said.

The analyst highlighted Netflix's comments that it had broad-based subscriber growth and its record-breaking figures weren't just because of the Paul/Tyson fight, NFL and second season of "Squid Game."

"Combing off what was likely NFLX's strongest content quarter ever and heading into a robust 2025 slate, we expect little pushback to price increases in the US and a few other markets."

Piper Sandler on NFLX: Strong content helped subscriber growth and provides upside for the stock, Farrell said in a new note.

"We remain impressed with the company's execution, as management continues to deliver positive surprises even at industry-leading scale," Farrell said.

The analyst's two biggest takeaways from Netflix's earnings call were tailwinds to subscriber growth and the continued ramp of the advertising tier.

"We see a strong content slate for this year supporting engagement. Netflix remains our top large cap idea."

Bank of America on NFLX: Fourth-quarter results and record-breaking subscriber figures marked a strong report, Ehrlich said in a new note.

"In our view, this quarter reflects the robust platform Netflix has created as it remains one of the best-positioned companies in media with several growth drivers," Ehrlich said.

NFLX Price Action: Netflix stock is up 10.96% to $965 Wednesday at publication versus a 52-week trading range of $481.40 to $999. The stock hit new all-time highs earlier Wednesday and shares are up almost 100% over the last year.

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