Novo Nordisk's Weight Loss Blockbuster Faces Setback From US Compounding Surge, Forecast Trimmed

Novo Nordisk A/S NVO slashed its 2025 sales forecast Wednesday, citing lower-than-expected penetration of its branded GLP-1 weight loss and diabetes treatments in the U.S. market due to competition from compounded versions of the drugs.

What Happened: The Danish pharmaceutical giant now expects sales growth of 13-21% at constant exchange rates, down from previous projections. Operating profit growth is now forecast at 16-24%.

“We have reduced our full-year outlook due to lower-than-planned branded GLP-1 penetration, which is impacted by the rapid expansion of compounding in the U.S.,” said CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen in the company’s first quarter earnings report.

Why It Matters: The headwinds come as weight-loss industry pioneer WW International Inc. WW, formerly known as WeightWatchers, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this week, highlighting the disruptive impact of GLP-1 drugs like Novo’s Wegovy and Ozempic.

Novo Nordisk faces additional market uncertainty as the President Donald Trump administration contemplates policies to match U.S. drug prices with lower rates in other developed nations.

The company continues to expand its product pipeline, recently completing the REDEFINE 2 trial for CagriSema, which demonstrated 15.7% weight loss in adults with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes. Novo Nordisk still expects to file for regulatory approval in the first quarter of 2026.

“With around 1 billion people living with obesity globally and only few million on treatment, Novo Nordisk continues the global roll-out of Wegovy,” the company stated.

Price Action: Novo Nordisk stock closed at $66.29 on Tuesday, down 4.09% for the day. In after-hours trading, the stock rose 1.37% to $67.20. Year to date, the stock has declined by 24.26%, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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