While Ukraine is continuing its counteroffensive in the northeast of the country as it tries to reclaim more occupied land from Russia, Elon Musk is pondering how the war is going to end.

What happened: Musk polled his more than 107 million Twitter followers on Monday to determine whether they agree with his four thoughts about how Russia and Ukraine will eventually come to a peace agreement. “This is highly likely to be the outcome in the end,” Musk said.

Russia announced last Friday it was annexing four regions in Ukraine, a move branded as illegitimate and farcical by the international community.
Read more: Russian Soldiers Call Putin 'A Fool' On Intercepted Calls: 'The Stupidest Decision Our Government Ever Made'

1. Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision, Russia leaves if that is the will of the people.

The Russian-orchestrated referendums (elections) in the annexed regions, which Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky called a farce, ended with the following results, according to Tass, the Russian state news agency:

87% of voters supported joining Russia in the Kherson region
93% in Zaporizhzhia region
99% in Donetsk region
98% in Luhansk region

2. Crimea, becomes formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake)

The Autonomous Republic of Crimea, which was governed by Ukraine before being invaded and annexed by Russia in 2014, is still recognized by the majority of nations, including the United States, as Ukrainian territory.

Up until 1954, when the Soviet government transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federation of Socialist Republics to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, Crimea was a part of Russia from 1783, when the Tsarist Empire annexed it, a decade after defeating Ottoman forces in the Battle of Kozludzha.

Khrushchev’s mistake: The handover of Crimea to Ukraine, according to Nina Khrushcheva, a political scientist and Nikita Khrushchev's great-granddaughter, was done in part to strengthen Khruschev's political position against then-Prime Minister Georgii Malenkov.

“It was somewhat symbolic,” the granddaughter said, “somewhat trying to reshuffle the centralized system and also, full disclosure, Nikita Khrushchev was very fond of Ukraine.”

Also Read: Russian Soldiers Call Putin 'A Fool' On Intercepted Calls: 'The Stupidest Decision Our Government Ever Made'

3. Water supply to Crimea must be assured

The North Crimean Canal is for Kherson Oblast in southern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula. It is used for irrigation and watering.

The canal's construction officially began shortly after the transfer of Crimea in 1954, but Ukraine shut it down in 2014, not long after Russia annexed the region.

However, the water supply was turned back on in March 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

According to a 2015 study, the canal had been supplying 85% of Crimea's water when it was shut off in 2014. Water from the canal was used for 72% of agricultural purposes, 10% for industrial, and 18% for drinking water and other public uses.

4. Ukraine remains neutral

Ukraine remained formally non-aligned (neutral) in international affairs for more than 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, up until the Russian invasion of Crimea.

As a result, despite the fact that the nation frequently alternated between pro-Russian and pro-European governments, it did not publicly take a position in the geopolitical back-and-forth between East and West.

All of that changed in 2014 after Russia took control of Crimea. The country's non-alignment status was officially renounced by Ukraine.

Back in March, Zelensky said: "Security guarantees and neutrality, the non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it. This is the most important point."

The Ukrainian President emphasized that any peace settlement would call for a halt to hostilities and the evacuation of Russian forces to their positions prior to the invasion, and he rejected calls for the nation to be demilitarized.

While Musk believes this is highly likely to be the outcome of peace, in the end, he wonders how many more people will die before then.

“Also worth noting that a possible, albeit unlikely, outcome from this conflict is nuclear war,” Musk opined, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats of the use of “all weapons made available to Russia.”

Photo: Courtesy of Herman Van Rompuy and Tesla Owners Club Belgium on flickr