U.S. economic growth is expected to see the most significant boost over the next two years if Vice President Kamala Harris, wins the White House.
That’s according to Goldman Sachs, which warned that higher tariffs and stricter immigration policies from Republican nominee Donald Trump could negatively impact economic output next year.
A Trump victory would likely result in increased tariffs on auto imports from China, Mexico, and the European Union, driving up core inflation.
Goldman Sachs, per Reuters, noted that job growth would likely be stronger under a Democratic government compared to a Republican one. A Harris administration is expected to have 10,000 jobs per month higher than if Trump wins with a divided government and 30,000 higher than under a Republican sweep.
“We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse, resulting in a peak hit to GDP growth of -0.5pp in 2025H2 that abates in 2026,” the Goldman analyst says.
“If Democrats sweep, new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”
According to a recent survey, Trump is currently leading Harris among veterans, active service members, and their families.
The poll conducted by Change Research shows Trump leading Harris 51% to 41% among veterans. Among active-duty members, guardsmen, and reservists, Trump leads 49% to 44%. The margin is narrower among family members of veterans, with Trump edging out Harris 47% to 45%.
But Harris has a slight lead in key swing states.
These polls come at a critical time as the 2024 election season heats up. President Joe Biden is set to accuse Russia of attempting to interfere with the upcoming election, emphasizing the security of the election infrastructure.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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