Chipotle International Expansion On The Menu: Analyst Cautions On Guidance, Tariffs In Earnings Preview

When Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG reports quarterly results Wednesday, it will have plenty to discuss, including tariffs, a new international expansion plan, and strong year-over-year quarterly visit growth.

Here are the analyst earnings estimates ahead of the report and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Chipotle to report first-quarter revenue of $2.96 billion. That’s up from $2.7 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has missed analyst estimates for revenue in two straight quarters. It beat estimates in four of the last six quarters and five of the past 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect Chipotle to report first-quarter earnings per share of 28 cents. That’s up from 27 cents per share in last year's first quarter. The company missed analyst estimates for earnings per share in the fourth quarter. It beat estimates in five of the past six quarters and seven of the past 10 quarters.

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What Analysts Are Saying: Challenging weather and traffic trends could hurt Chipotle's first quarter and guidance, Guggenheim analyst Gregory Francfort said in a new investor note.

The analyst maintained a Neutral rating on Chipotle while lowering the price target from $56 to $48.

"We think the company will likely cut SSS guidance to flat to positive LSD for the year," Francfort said.

The analyst said Chipotle previously gave a cautious sales outlook for the first half 2025.

"We do not think management could have envisioned sales to be as soft as credit card data has suggested so far this year."

The analyst said Chipotle needs to outline its international growth plan to help with a high stock valuation.

Francfort also said tariffs could impact the restaurant sector with consumers looking to cut spending somewhere.

"We think that downside to consensus has driven share price underperformance but also view the brand as one of the highest quality growth businesses that we cover."

Several other analysts have cut their price targets on Chipotle ahead of the quarterly financial results, including the following:

• Barclays: Maintained Equal-weight rating, lowered price target from $60 to $56
• Truist: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $74 to $61
• Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $70 to $60
• UBS: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $70 to $65
• KeyBanc Capital Markets: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $64 to $60

Key Items to Watch: Data from Placer.ai may not agree with Francfort. The report said Chipotle saw first-quarter year-over-year traffic growth of 4.5%. It significantly outperformed the overall fast-casual sector (-4.2% year-over-year). Chipotle also rolled out its Honey Chicken option in March, which could boost first-quarter comp sales.

Chipotle recently announced it would enter Mexico as the company's seventh international market. The new stores in Mexico will begin in 2026 with a partnership with restaurant company Alsea.

Chipotle began expanding internationally in 2023, but currently has a limited presence outside the U.S. The company has over 3,700 units worldwide with a long-term goal of 7,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada. It may also provide investors and analysts with an update on its expansion in Mexico.

One area to watch in the quarterly results will likely be new store openings, with the potential that the macroeconomic conditions will have the restaurant company scale back on new store opening guidance. The company previously said it expected to open between 315 and 345 new restaurants in 2025.

Another area to watch will be the impact of tariffs on food and other costs, with Chipotle previously saying it didn't plan on passing on higher costs on items like avocados to consumers.

"It is our intent as we sit here today to absorb those costs," Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright previously said. He said the tariffs could be a "significant headwind" for the company and pricing changes could come in the long run.

Without passing the costs on to the consumers, Chipotle could see higher costs and its margins impacted, which could be factored into future guidance.

As a public company, Chipotle faces the tough task of appealing to both investors and consumers. While the move to eat the costs at the restaurant level will be praised by consumers, investors may not share that sentiment. The question will be if they can gain additional customers who appreciate the move or take share from other restaurants that put surcharges on items.

Price Action: Chipotle stock was up 1.2% to $47.09 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $44.46 to $69.26. Chipotle stock is down 21.4% year-to-date in 2025.

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