Ray Dalio Says Don't Make The Mistake Of Thinking What's Happening Now Is Due To Trump Tariffs

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates and an influential voice among investors, has delivered a sobering message where he states that United States citizens are not just dealing with trade skirmishes but watching the slow-motion collapse of the global system as we know it.

What Happened: In a detailed public post, Dalio criticized the media and market obsession with President Trump's tariffs, arguing that they are merely "a symptom, not the cause" of the turmoil. "Don't make the mistake of thinking that what's now happening is mostly about tariffs," he warned.

What’s Dalio Talking About?

Dalio outlines what he sees as five converging crises:

• Monetary and Economic Breakdown: U.S. debt now exceeds $36 trillion and continues to balloon. Dalio calls the U.S.-China economic relationship an "incongruous” debtor-creditor addiction cycle, driven by deglobalization and dangerously unsustainable borrowing.
• Domestic Political Unraveling: He sees a deepening rift between the far left and far right. "Compromise is now viewed as weakness," he noted, echoing data from Pew Research that shows 85% of Americans believe political conflict is worsening.
• Geopolitical Realignment: The old U.S.-led world order is breaking apart. Trump's "America First" strategy, from tariffs to tech bans, signals a shift to a "power-rules approach." Dalio connects this to historical cycles in which emerging powers challenge incumbents — China, in this case, whose GDP (PPP) overtook the U.S. in 2024, per IMF data.
• Climate Instability: Floods, droughts, and pandemics are no longer one-off events—they’re systemic shocks that further erode fragile political and financial systems.
• Technological Disruption: AI is accelerating everything — from geopolitical arms races to labor market dislocation. "This is not business as usual," Dalio warned.

See also: What’s Next For Dogecoin Amid Market Correction? Analyst Identifies This Level As ‘Key’ Support To Watch

Why It Matters: Dalio suggests that policymakers stop reacting to headlines and start studying the past. "What's happening now resembles the debt-default cycles of the 1930s and the stagflation chaos of the 1970s," he wrote.

Elsewhere, fellow billionaire investor Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square, warns of severe potential economic repercussions of escalating tariffs, stating that business relies heavily on trust and confidence. Ackman also called for a 90-day pause on tariff implementation — a move that was slammed by another billionaire Andrew Beal. Similarly, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, cautioned that the tariffs could trigger inflation and slow the U.S. economy.

Featured Image via Bridgewater Associates

Read next: Steve Eisman Of ‘Big Short’ Fame Says No Amount Of Fundamental Research Can Help Navigate Trump’s Tariff War, ‘Throw It Out Of The Window’