Why Sportsbooks Like DraftKings May Favor Low-Scoring Super Bowl LIX

Analysts are weighing in on which sportsbooks stand to gain from Super Bowl LIX and whether a Kansas City Chiefs three-peat would be a win or loss for the industry.

Super Bowl LIX Winners: Bank of America said the Chiefs winning and less than 48.5 points being scored in Super Bowl LIX could be the perfect formula for sportsbooks.

The prediction comes with most sportsbooks having the Chiefs as a 1.5-point favorite, among the low favorites in Super Bowl history, with an average of three points in the last 10 games.

Data tracked from BetMGM, which is a joint venture from MGM Resorts International MGM and Entain, shows that bettors favor the Eagles moneyline and spread based on both handle and the number of bets at 53% and 55% respectively. For the over/under, around 84% of the handle and 78% of the bets are on the over at BetMGM.

Bank of America said the caution from some sportsbooks, including BetMGM, is there is a large liability of futures bets from earlier in the season on the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl.

Overall, a total of $1.4 billion is expected to be bet on Super Bowl LIX according to the American Gaming Association, which would be in line with last year's total.

The Super Bowl is important for customer acquisition, Bank of America said in their new note. Among the companies with promotions for new customers are DraftKings DKNG, Flutter Entertainment FLUT brand FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars Entertainment CZR. ESPN Bet from Penn Entertainment EPNN is also listed in the promotions.

"Since the game is being held at the Caesars Superdome, the Caesars brand will likely get a lot of airtime, and the newly renovated New Orleans casino should benefit from increased activity around the game."

DraftKings will not have a Super Bowl LIX commercial while FanDuel will.

Bank of America also said that sportsbooks are again leaning into the Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce relationship, which may have boosted viewership for last year's Super Bowl.

Sportsbooks have Swiftie Specials bets and FanDuel even offers a Swift bingo card. In Canada, BetMGM customers can bet on if Kelce and Swift will get engaged after Super Bowl LIX at odds of +800.

Needham on DraftKings: Needham analyst Bernie McTernan reiterated a Buy rating and $60 price target on DraftKings ahead of Super Bowl LIX.

The analyst lowers fourth quarter estimates due to the already "widely known" customer-friendly outcomes for NFL games.

"For Super Bowl promos, we are seeing more jackpot promos with others following DKNG's King of the Court/King of the Endzone," McTernan said.

The analyst said DraftKings has been offering happy hour promotions that could increase betting volume in the days ahead of Super Bowl LIX.

For DraftKings, the biggest Super Bowl LIX liability could be the over 48.5 points with 84% of the handle, McTernan added.

"We do not think the winner of the game will have a major impact for the books. We note, it looks like sharps are leaning towards Chiefs ML and Eagles spread from looking at percent of handle relative to the percent of books."

DKNG Price Action: DraftKings stock is down 0.2% to $42.36 on Friday versus a 52-week trading range of $28.69 to $49.57.

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