Betting Odds For Pope Francis Replacement Show Two Favorites, Plus This Global Event Has MLB Bettors Backing Nick Castellanos To Hit Home Runs

Pope Francis has died at the age of 88 leaving a vacancy for the position of the global head of the Catholic Church.

Here's a look at the betting odds for the next pope and why sports bettors believe one Major League Baseball player will hit a home run Monday.

Next Pope Odds: Pope Francis was the first South American pope and was known to many as the "People's Pope" thanks to his advocacy for the poor.

Francis had been pope since 2013 when Pope Benedict XVI resigned.

With the death of Pope Francis, the Conclave, a process to select the next pope, will now take place. Conclave typically happens between 15 and 20 days following the death of the pope, which includes a week of mourning.

Unlike presidents and world leaders, the new pope will not be selected by the public, but instead by a group of cardinals who are under the age of 80. The next pope will likely be a cardinal given past history, but all baptized Catholic males are eligible to become a pope.

Betting on the next pope is currently not allowed in the U.S., but prediction markets and European sportsbooks have odds listed after Monday's news of the pope's passing.

Here are the current betting odds for the next pope from prediction market Polymarket:

Pietro Parolin (Italy): 36%
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines): 26%
Peter Erdo (Hungary): 8%
Peter Turkson (Ghana): 7%
Robert Sarah (Guinea): 5%
Matteo Zuppi (Italy): 5%
Raymond Burke (U.S.): 4%
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy): 3%

Polymarket also has odds for the continent the winner will be selected from with the current odds:

Europe: 62%
Asia: 22%
Africa: 10%
North America: 3%
South America: 1%
Oceania: 1%

The prediction market also has odds for when the next pope will be announced, with only a 1% chance that the announcement comes by the end of April. The odds of a new pope announcement by May 9 sit at 59%, with the odds of a new pope revealed by May 31 at 97%.

Dating back to 1963, here are the number of days it took for the next pope to be announced:

2013: 13 days
2005: 17 days
1978: 18 days
1978: 20 days
1963: 18 days

Polymarket allows users to deposit funds using USDC USDC/USD via the Polygon MATIC/USD network or directly from a crypto account with Ethereum ETH/USD. Winning wagers cash out at $1 per contract. Many of the pope markets have a deadline of Dec. 31, 2025, to cash out or they will turn to $0.

At Oddschecker, the current favorites to be the next pope are:

Parolin +350, 22% chance
Tagle: +500, 17% chance
Angelo Scola (Italy): +700, 13% chance
Marc Ouellet (Canada): +700, 13% chance

Both Polymarket and Oddschecker show Parolin and Tagle as the favorites, while it could be anyone's guess beyond the two frontrunners before the Conclave begins. Tagle could become the first Filipino pope in history and the first pope from Asia in over 1,000 years.

Parolin has been Francis' secretary of state since 2014 and would likely continue his predecessor's style of leading while also bringing an Italian back to the leadership role after three straight non-Italian popes.. At the age of 67, Tagle could be considered young for a pope and could serve in the leadership role for decades.

MLB Pope Death Connection: Bettors on MLB games and player props are paying close attention to Nick Castellanos and the Philadelphia Phillies who battle the New York Mets Monday night at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Those familiar with baseball know that Castellanos has a knack for hitting home runs on days that have major global events or while the announcers are discussing controversial topics.

Castellanos began the day at odds of +750 to hit a home run at DraftKings Inc DKNG and the odds have since fallen to +360 with a large number of bets being placed on the MLB hitter.

At BetMGM, Castellanos is the most bet player to hit a home run by more than 3x, according to John Ewing.

At ESPN Bet, Castellanos home run is the most bet player prop across MLB, NBA and NHL combined, which includes multiple Monday playoff contests.

Here is a list of examples of when Castellanos has hit home runs:

The day Osama Bin Laden was killed
Right before Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential election
While a broadcaster was apologizing for using a homophobic slur
20^th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks (Sept. 11, 2021)
During a broadcaster's tribute to those who made "the ultimate sacrifice" on Memorial Day
Day of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump

As the Philadelphia Inquirer points out, Castellanos was on the injured list after Queen Elizabeth II died, so he was unable to keep his tradition of hitting home runs during global events in place. Time will tell if the pope's death is followed by a home run by Castellanos or if sportsbooks clean up from the large number of bets placed on the player prop.

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