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Huge Post Debate Uncertainty For Investors, New Data On Fed&#39;s Favorite Inflation Gauge And Personal Spending

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Stocks reacted positively to April&#39;s PCE report. How will the market react to May&#39;s report? Here are the ETFs to watch.

Last Inflation Report Pushed Markets To Record Highs In June: Could It Happen Again Friday? 5 ETFs To Watch

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Wall Street experienced a subdued trading day on Thursday, as traders likely chose to remain on the sidelines in anticipation of Friday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

Stocks Show Modest Gains Ahead Of Fed&#39;s Inflation Report; Chipmakers Struggle, While Gold And Bitcoin Rebound: What&#39;s Driving Markets Thursday?

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AI Stocks Show Asymmetry On Expectations Proving Too High, Wall Street Preps For Presidential Debate

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Quarter End Window Dressing And Fed&#39;s Favorite Inflation Gauge Ahead, Hopes Of Two Rate Cuts In Europe

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US economy strong in June, easing pressure on Fed to cut interest rates. Composite PMI at 54.6, services at 55.1, manufacturing at 51.7. Inflation cooled, stocks unchanged.

US Private Sector Activity Exceeds Estimates, Fastest Growth In 2 Years – Will The Fed Welcome The Data?

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<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-28_08h43_52.png" style="height:385px; width:700px" />
<h3>PCE</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-pce-inflation-data-presidential-debate-spy-mc-06282024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is attempting to break to a new high.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that there is a technical set up for the stock market to go higher.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is significantly above the support zone.&nbsp;This indicates that buying here does not have a favorable risk reward ratio.</li>
<li>The chart shows low volume.&nbsp;This indicates a lack of conviction.</li>
<li>We previously shared with you that economists have become good at predicting the Fed&rsquo;s favorite inflation gauge PCE.&nbsp;PCE data came as expected.&nbsp;Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline PCE came at 0.0% vs. 0.0% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PCE came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp;For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending.&nbsp;Personal spending dropped.&nbsp;This is inline with the other data of the consumer pulling back that we have been sharing with you.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Personal spending came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Personal income came at 0.5% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>First and foremost, The Arora Report is politically agnostic.&nbsp;The Arora Report strives to be objective and rigorously analytical to help investors.&nbsp;To make money in the markets, it is important for investors to separate their political views from investing.&nbsp; Here are the key points:
<ul>
<li>The presidential debate has thrown huge uncertainty in the American economy and U.S.&rsquo;s international standing.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should wait for the air to clear post debate.</li>
<li>There will be winning and losing investments from the election.</li>
<li>Depending upon what happens over the coming days, changes may be made in the portfolios.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if nothing changes, the Magnificent Seven stocks,other mega cap stocks, and fossil fuel energy stocks are the winners post debate; clean energy stocks, environmental stocks, and Chinese stocks are losers; and companies that compete with Chinese companies are the winners.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if nothing changes, the U.S. dollar is a potential loser and gold is a potential winner.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Quarter end window dressing continues.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3>France</h3>
The first round of French elections will take place this weekend.&nbsp;The far right National Rally is projected to make gains.&nbsp;President Macron&rsquo;s party is projected to lose.&nbsp;There are significant implications from the French elections for investors.&nbsp;Please see prior Capsules for details.
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), and&nbsp;Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. &nbsp;Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV). &nbsp;The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp;If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp;A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp;When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Huge Post Debate Uncertainty For Investors, New Data On Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge And Personal Spending

The inflation report that&#8217;s closely watched by the Federal Reserve — the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index — was published on May 31 for April data and sparked a fresh market rally in June, pushing major indexes to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">their all-time highs</a>.
As traders brace for Friday&#8217;s PCE price index report for May, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, many are wondering whether new favorable inflation data could bring the bulls back to Wall Street after some mixed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/06/39532797/stocks-show-modest-gains-ahead-of-feds-inflation-report-chipmakers-struggle-while-gold-and-bitco">performance in recent sessions.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">May&#8217;s PCE Report: What Do Economists Expect?</h3>
The PCE price index is expected to decrease from 2.7% year-on-year in April to 2.6% in May, according to economist consensus data gathered by Econoday. 
On a monthly basis, the index is forecasted to rise at a 0.1% rate, down from the previous 0.3%. 
The core PCE price index is projected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year in May, potentially reaching its lowest level since March 2021. 
Monthly, it is expected to slow from 0.2% to 0.1%.
If PCE inflation falls as expected or even more, it could bolster investor expectations of rate cuts, potentially reigniting hopes for a move as early as September, and would be welcomed by markets.
Traders are assigning a 65% chance on a Fed rate cut in September. Overall, there are 50 basis points — equivalent to two rate cuts — priced into year-end.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed&#8217;s Favorite PCE Report Arrives Friday: What Happened Last Time?</h3>
In April, the headline PCE inflation rate remained steady at 2.7% year-on-year. The core PCE price index also matched expectations with a 2.8% year-on-year increase, though it came in slightly lower than monthly estimates (0.2% vs. 0.3%).
Data on personal spending and personal income came in slightly softer than predicted, fueling expectations that the economy was cooling down and that inflation pressures would continue to ease.
This sustained expectations of an increasing likelihood of the Fed delivering two rate cuts by the end of the year.
Stocks reacted positively to April&#8217;s PCE report. The S&amp;P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), rallied 0.9% on that day. 
Notably, the data was a key turning point for a bullish trend reversal in June, as the chart below retrieved from Benzinga Pro shows.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="458" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1024x458.png" alt="" class="wp-image-409213" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1024x458.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-300x134.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-768x344.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61-1536x687.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/27120704/image-61.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Other Key ETFs To Watch Friday</h3>
Other than the broader stock market, traders will also be closely monitoring other key asset classes to gauge the overall market&#8217;s reaction to the PCE inflation report, including:
<ol>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index: Tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>). The dollar may weaken if inflation comes in below consensus estimates, and strengthen if it exceeds expectations, in reactions to market interest rate expectations. </li>
<li>Long-dated U.S. Treasury Bonds: Measured by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>). A lower-than-expected PCE report is likely to push bond yields down, driving up the value of Treasury-related ETFs, and vice versa.</li>
<li>Gold Prices: Monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>). Gold typically moves inversely to the dollar and yields. A cooler-than-expected PCE report could increase expectations for Fed rate cuts, enhancing gold&#8217;s appeal.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 Index: Replicated by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>). Small caps, which have significantly underperformed the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 this year, may benefit from lower inflation rates as the pressure from high interest rates, which affect them more than large-cap stocks, would diminish.</li>
</ol>
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/macro-notification/24/06/39527471/gdp-growth-upwardly-revised-in-q1-but-consumer-spending-weakens-continuing-jobless-cla">GDP Growth Upwardly Revised In Q1 But Consumer Spending Weakens, Continuing Jobless Claims Hit Nearly 3-Year Highs: Thursday&#8217;s Economic Digest</a></li>
</ul>

Wall Street experienced a subdued trading day on Thursday, as traders likely chose to remain on the sidelines in anticipation of Friday&#8217;s release of the Federal <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/06/39513292/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-set-to-drop-to-38-month-low-this-could-provide-the">Reserve&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge.</a>
In regulatory news, U.S. banks successfully passed the Federal Reserve&#8217;s 2024 stress tests. The results demonstrated that all analyzed institutions could maintain minimum capital requirements even in the face of a severe economic shock. Notably, regional banks, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>), performed relatively better overall compared to their larger counterparts. 
As of midday trading in New York, major indices showed marginal gains, with small caps outperforming large-cap indices. 
The semiconductor sector continued to face headwinds, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) down 0.7%, eyeing its fifth negative session in the last six. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) declined almost 2%.
Treasury yields moved lower, reflecting increased demand for bonds ahead of the key inflation report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell by 4 basis points to 4.29%, following an 8 basis-point increase on Wednesday. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rose 0.5%.
In the commodities market, lower yields and a slightly weaker dollar spurred rebounds. Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), gained 1.2%, erasing Wednesday&#8217;s losses, while crude inched 0.7% higher. 
Cryptocurrencies also saw gains, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) up 1.3% and Solana (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/sol/usd">SOL</a>) surging over 8% following VanEck&#8217;s filing for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/06/39528468/vaneck-files-solana-etf-application-sol-rallies-6">a Solana ETF application.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,020.84</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,802.54</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>39,220.82</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,481.94</td>
<td>0.1 %</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:51 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/pro/register/?utm_source=BZprocontent062824&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro&nbsp;data</a>:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.1% higher to $545.95.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was 0.2% higher to $391.94.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.2% higher to $481.55.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 0.5%, while the&nbsp;Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) lagged, falling 0.5%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Salesforce Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRM#NASDAQ">CRM</a>) rallied 6%, marking the best performance within the S&amp;P 500. </li>
<li>Goldman Sachs Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>) fell 2.3%, in reaction to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39525918/major-banks-fall-short-in-feds-2024-stress-test-results-the-market-will-view-the-re">the Fed&#8217;s stress tests.</a> </li>
<li>Among regional banks First Foundations Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FFWM#NYSE">FFWM</a>) and Dime Community Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DCOM#NASDAQ">DCOM</a>) topped gains, up 5.9% and 4%, respectively. </li>
<li>Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) increased by 2.2% after unveiling a new section on its website focused on budget-friendly fashion and lifestyle products, facilitating direct shipping from Chinese sellers to U.S. consumers. Chinese e-commerce platforms&nbsp;PDD Holdings Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PDD#NASDAQ">PDD</a>), JD.com (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JD#NASDAQ">JD</a>) and Alibaba Group Holding (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NASDAQ">BABA</a>) fell 4%, 3.8% and 1.9%, respectively. </li>
<li>Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>) tumbled 25%, in reaction to quarterly earnings. </li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to company earnings were Micron Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>), down 6.4%, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JEF#NYSE">JEF</a>), up 6.7%, Levi Strauss &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEVI#NYSE">LEVI</a>), down 16.5%, McCormick &amp; Co. Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MKC#NYSE">MKC</a>), up 4.6%, Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>) up 0.9%, The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMPL#NASDAQ">SMPL</a>), down 1.7%.</li>
</ul>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39530805/microns-q3-earnings-8-analysts-optimistic-about-ai-growth-predict-success-in-advanc">Micron&#8217;s Q3 Earnings: 8 Analysts Optimistic About AI Growth, Predict Success In Advanced Memory Technology</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Stocks Show Modest Gains Ahead Of Fed's Inflation Report; Chipmakers Struggle, While Gold And Bitcoin Rebound: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-27_09h08_34.png" style="height:392px; width:624px" />
<h3>AI Expectations</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-ai-expectations-presidential-debate-mu-mc-06272024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Micron stock (MU).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>MU has become a favorite AI stock of Wall Street.</li>
<li>The chart shows that MU stock has fallen after earnings.</li>
<li>MU reported good earnings, but the stock fell because Micron&rsquo;s guiding revenue was inline with consensus.&nbsp;Whisper numbers were for MU to guide higher than the consensus.</li>
<li>The chart shows that MU is now below the trendline.</li>
<li>The chart shows the volume was high going into earnings, indicating the market&rsquo;s conviction for the stock to go higher after earnings.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that MU can go lower.</li>
<li>Technical analysis is fine, but investors should perform a 360 degree analysis that synergistically optimizes technical analysis, fundamental analysis, macro analysis, and quantitative analysis.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis in the case of MU, even though technical analysis is giving a sell signal, after earnings, MU is still a buy on fundamental analysis, macro analysis, and quantitative analysis.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, there are two very important observations from Micron earnings for investors:
<ul>
<li>AI is real, but the momo crowd has driven expectations too high.&nbsp;</li>
<li>There is a strong asymmetry in AI stocks for the time being.&nbsp;The reaction to MU earnings illustrates the point. As of this writing in the premarket, MU stock is down about $6.&nbsp;On the other hand, if the revenue projection was only slightly higher, the stock would have been heading for about a $40 gain in the zone of $175 - $182 in the coming days.&nbsp; Members and readers&nbsp;of The Arora Report have a long core position in MU from $21.77.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is tonight.&nbsp;Here are the key points for investors:
<ul>
<li>&nbsp;First and foremost, The Arora Report is politically agnostic.&nbsp;The Arora Report&rsquo;s sole job is to help investors make money by staying independent, objective, and highly analytical.</li>
<li>The prevailing wisdom on Wall Street is that if Trump wins the debate, the stock market will go down.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, investors should not buy into Wall Street&rsquo;s prevailing wisdom.</li>
<li>Long time members of The Arora Report may recall that prior to the 2016 election, when Wall Street had anointed Hillary Clinton as the next president, The Arora Report had correctly called that Trump would win.&nbsp;At that time, The Arora Report was among the very tiny minority with the correct call.</li>
<li>When Trump won in 2016, Wall Street&rsquo;s wisdom was that the stock market would fall.&nbsp; In contrast, after Trump&rsquo;s win, The Arora Report call was that the stock market would rise with DJIA reaching 30,000 in Trump&rsquo;s first term.&nbsp; At that time, no one had a call for DJIA to reach higher than 20,000.&nbsp; History shows that The Arora Report had two perfect calls benefiting Arora Report members and readers.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Initial claims came at 233K vs. 238K consensus. Investors should focus on the four week average.&nbsp;In the short term, momo gurus are not going to like this number.</li>
<li>Durable orders are mixed.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline durable orders came at 0.1% vs. -1.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Durable orders ex-transport came at -0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Q1 GDP-third estimate came at 1.4% vs. 1.3% consensus.&nbsp;This is a lagging indicator showing that the economy has been strong.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp;A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

WIIM

Gold and silver are trading higher ahead of Friday PCE data. Precious metals may also be reacting to regional tensions following an attempted coup in Bolivia, stress test results and earlier economic data.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-26_08h15_39.png" style="height:383px; width:700px" />
<h3>Window Dressing</h3>
Please&nbsp;<a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-window-dressing-pce-ahead-spy-mc-06262024">click here</a>&nbsp;for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market has continued to levitate way above the support zone. This indicates that there is significant risk if buying here.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the volume is low.&nbsp;This indicates lack of conviction.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that, at least temporarily, the stock market is losing its upward momentum and can pull back.</li>
<li>This is the end of the quarter.&nbsp; Window dressing is underway.&nbsp;In window dressing, some money managers buy the best performing stocks of the quarter and sell the weakest stocks of the quarter.&nbsp;The purpose is to show their clients in the quarter end reports that they were holding the best performing stocks.</li>
<li>The Fed&#39;s favorite inflation gauge, PCE, will be released on Friday.&nbsp;Economists have become good at correctly predicting PCE.&nbsp;Nonetheless, PCE has the potential to move the market.</li>
<li>Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/mu#NASDAQ">MU</a>) will report earnings after the close.&nbsp; MU earnings will impact the artificial intelligence trade.&nbsp;Please see <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/micron-earnings-062424/">prior Morning Capsules</a> and <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/signal-micron-062524/">articles on Micron</a> for more details.</li>
<li>In noteworthy action, traders have been running up NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) stock after it touched the top band of the mini support zone.&nbsp; Please&nbsp;<a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-bounces-semiconductors-nvda-mc-06252024">click here</a>&nbsp;for the chart.&nbsp; For the sake of complete transparency, this chart has not been changed from the chart published yesterday morning before the market open.</li>
<li>In the early trade, traders ran up NVDA to $129.97, where selling came in.&nbsp; As of this writing, selling is persisting.</li>
<li>In noteworthy news, Volkswagen A G Unsponsored Represent 1 10th Sh ADR (OTC: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vwagy#OTC">VWAGY</a>) has thrown a lifeline to EV maker Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/rivn#NASDAQ">RIVN</a>) with a $1B initial investment and plans to invest up to $5B.&nbsp;As a full disclosure, there is a very nice profitable <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/volkswagen-062624/" style="color:#467886; text-decoration:underline">trade on RIVN</a> in The Arora Report&#39;s ZYX Buy.</li>
<li>Olli Rehn, an ECB policy maker, said that two rate cuts this year are reasonable.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, every ECB meeting this year will be live for a potential rate cut.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, ECB actions are going to put pressure on the Fed to cut rates.</li>
<li>Options traders are betting on interest rate cuts of 3% over the next nine months in the U.S.&nbsp; These options traders belong to the momo crowd.&nbsp;Investors need to be aware that even though they are betting real money, these options traders have been consistently wrong.&nbsp; They started the year betting on six or seven rate cuts this year.&nbsp;For reference, there have been no rate cuts so far this year.&nbsp; If these options traders are right, the Fed would be very aggressively cutting rates this year and early next year.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.&nbsp;Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVDA, Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. &nbsp;Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV). &nbsp;The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound and trading above $60,000.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative.The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp;If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp;When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga" style="color:#467886; text-decoration:underline">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Quarter End Window Dressing And Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Ahead, Hopes Of Two Rate Cuts In Europe

Gold prices could skyrocket to $3,000 per ounce within the next 12 to 18 months, according to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">Bank of America&#8217;s latest analysis</a>.
Michael Widmer, a commodity strategist at the bank, suggests that a combination of factors — increasing investment demand, geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank purchases — could boost the yellow <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;rct=j&amp;opi=89978449&amp;url=https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiR98e6n_SGAxVZwAIHHV80DF0QFnoECA4QAQ&amp;usg=AOvVaw2JFXWAHOQ01iJLxOuFn7pj">metal&#8217;s appeal among investors. </a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Resurgence In Investor Demand</h3>
In 2023, investor demand for gold saw a notable resurgence, the investment bank noted, with private bar hoarding and central bank acquisitions accounting for 49% and 43% of purchases, respectively.
However, physically backed ETFs, such as the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), have experienced a decline in assets under management, which has tempered overall demand growth. 
&#8220;A pick-up in LBMA clearing volumes would be an encouraging signal of rising non-commercial demand for gold, and would be consistent with higher prices needed to balance out the market,&#8221; Widmer said. 
Chart: Bank of America Eyes A Near 30% Rally In Gold Prices Within 12-18 Months
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-401847" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/24082833/image-52.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Central Bank Purchases As A Key Driver</h3>
Central bank purchases remain a crucial factor supporting gold prices. 
The World Gold Council&#8217;s (WGC) latest Central Bank Survey indicates a continued appetite for gold among monetary authorities. In 2023, central banks added 1,037 tonnes of gold, marking the second-highest annual purchase on record, following 2022&#8217;s peak of 1,082 tonnes.
The survey reveals that 29% of central bank respondents plan to increase their gold reserves in the next year, the highest percentage since the survey&#8217;s inception in 2018. 
Additionally, 83% of central banks hold gold as part of their international reserves, with 88% citing it as a long-term store of value and inflation hedge, followed by &#8220;performance during times of crisis&#8221; at 82%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China&#8217;s Strategic Shift: Sell USD, Buy Gold</h3>
&#8220;While the motivation of individual central banks for owning gold may vary, many reserve portfolios have one thing in common: the share of USD has been declining, while gold holdings have risen,&#8221; Widmer noted. 
The People&#8217;s Bank of China (PBoC) exemplifies this trend by diversifying its foreign reserves and increasing its gold holdings by 8 million ounces, equivalent to $51 billion, since January 2023. 
This move has raised the proportion of gold in China&#8217;s total reserves from 3.5% in December 2022 to 4.9% in April 2024. 
Concurrently, China&#8217;s holdings of U.S. Treasuries have plummeted by $102 billion over the past year, reaching a 25-year low of $767 billion in March 2024.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Impact Of Federal Reserve Policies, Timeless Safe-Haven Appeal</h3>
Bank of America forecasts that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates and the U.S. dollar weakens in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, investor buying will drive gold prices higher.
The investment bank believes that gold would show its strength even if investor dissatisfaction with the U.S. Treasury market grows, prompting higher yields. 
According to Widmer, in an environment of declining liquidity and resiliency in the Treasury market, gold is expected to maintain its allure as a safe haven asset. While a sharp increase in Treasury yields might initially push gold prices down, the search for stability would likely redirect flows into the gold market.
&#8220;The long-standing inverse relationship between gold and rates has become more tenuous already and in our view, this is unlikely to change going forward,&#8221; the analyst stated. 
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/06/39453063/nasdaq-futures-slip-as-nvidia-sell-off-continues-s-p-500-futures-hold-up-analyst-says-valuations-wi">Nasdaq Futures Slip As Nvidia Sell-Off Continues, S&amp;P 500 Futures Hold Up: Analyst Says &#8216;Valuations Will Go Parabolic And It Will Be A Perfect Time To Sell</a>

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-21_08h10_42.png" style="height:369px; width:624px" />
<h3>Negative Pattern</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-traces-negative-pattern-nvda-mc-06212024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that NVDA stock opened higher yesterday.&nbsp;The higher opening was the result of more good news, pump during the holiday the day before, and continuing momentum from retail investors rushing in head long to buy.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock closed lower than the prior trading day.</li>
<li>The foregoing is a negative pattern that shows up as a bearish engulfing candle on a day chart.</li>
<li>The pattern needs confirmation.&nbsp;Confirmation will be achieved if there is follow through to the downside today.</li>
<li>The chart shows in the early trade, there is follow through to the downside.</li>
<li>The momo crowd has been aggressively buying the dip.</li>
<li>The chart shows that in spite of aggressive momo crowd buying, the VUD indicator was orange yesterday.&nbsp;Orange indicating net supply of stock.&nbsp; VUD indicator is the best way to ascertain net supply/demand in real time.&nbsp; As full disclosure, VUD indicator&nbsp;is one of many proprietary indicators of The Arora Report.</li>
<li>If the incessant momo crowd buying causes the stock to close higher than the lower low shown on the chart, the pattern will be negated.</li>
<li>A similar pattern occurred in NVDA stock on March 8, 2024.&nbsp;The pattern was followed by an approximate 20% drop in NVDA stock.</li>
<li>Setting technicals aside, when a stock goes down on good news, it is a sign that a stock is getting over owned.&nbsp; In plain English this means that the stock is running out of buyers willing to buy at higher and higher prices, at least temporarily.</li>
<li>NVDA is now becoming a cult stock and many investors are emotional about it.&nbsp;As full disclosure, readers and members of The Arora Report are long NVDA stock from $12.55, and NVDA is a large position in The Arora Report Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>The notional value of quadruple witching today is about $5.5T. In quadruple witching, stock index futures, futures options, stock options, and single stock futures expire.&nbsp; Quadruple witching often leads to volatility.</li>
<li>A big part of the moves in the stock market this week have been related to quad witching.&nbsp;Often, but not always, moves related to quad witching reverse the following week.</li>
<li>S&amp;P Global PMIs will be released at 9:45am ET.&nbsp; Existing home sales and leading indicators will be released at 10am ET. These data may be market moving, but the market&rsquo;s primary driver will be option expiration.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Europe</h3>
Stocks in Europe are weaker due to disappointing PMI data.&nbsp;Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Flash Manufacturing PMI came at 45.6 vs. 48.0 consensus.</li>
<li>Flash Services PMI came at 52.6 vs. 53.5 consensus.</li>
<li>The foregoing data is projecting slower growth.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
Note for new investors: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.&nbsp;Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money&rsquo;s ways.&nbsp;The exception is in a raging bull market &ndash; for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
<h3>Gold</h3>
The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV).&nbsp;
<h3>Oil</h3>
The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing selling along with other speculative tech stocks.&nbsp;Bitcoin has now fallen below $65,000.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp;If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp;A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp;High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

The latest surveys by S&amp;P Global reveal an American economy firing on all cylinders in June, with robust activity and cooling inflation creating a goldilocks environment, giving the Fed more leeway <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">to cut interest rates.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P Global Purchasing Managers&#8217; Indices (PMIs) For June: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The Composite PMI rose to 54.6 in June, up by 0.1 percentage points from May and marking the highest level since April 2022. </li>
<li>The Services PMI rose from 54.8 in May to 55.1, topping estimates of 53.7 as collected by Econoday. It marks the strongest services sector expansion in two years. Services activity has now risen for 17 consecutive months. </li>
<li>The Manufacturing PMI also improved in its growth path, rising from 51.3 to 51.7, beating forecasts of 51. </li>
<li>S&amp;P Global highlighted an improved business confidence for the year ahead, notably in the service sector, along with increasing pressure on operating capacity due to rising demand, which has prompted firms to increase their payroll numbers for the first time in three months.&nbsp; </li>
<li>Another significant positive factor was that the output growth did not come with rising price pressures. The survey's measure of selling price inflation cooled to a five-month low, linked to slower growth in input costs, indicating a moderation of inflationary pressures. </li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Economist Take</h3>
&#8220;The PMI is running at a level broadly consistent with the economy growing at an annualized rate of just under 2.5%. The upturn is broad-based, as rising demand continues to filter through the economy,&#8221; Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, wrote.
Williamson revealed that selling price inflation has cooled again after rising in May, dropping to one of the lowest levels observed over the past four years.
&#8220;Historical comparisons indicate that the latest decline brings the survey's price gauge into line with the Fed's 2% inflation target,&#8221; he added. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Stocks were relatively unchanged after the data release, with major U.S. equity indices trading in the red, except for the Dow Jones, as of 10:00 a.m. in New York. 
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was down 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) fell 0.5%. The decline was driven by a second consecutive day of profit-taking in tech and semiconductor stocks. 
The world&#8217;s largest company, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), was 3.2% lower after closing 3.5% lower on Thursday. 
Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing from 4.23% to 4.26% after the PMIs data. 
The dollar strengthened by 0.2%, while gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), fell over 1% for the day.
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39431836/5-charts-expose-troubling-weaknesses-in-record-high-stock-market-this-is-not-normal">5 Charts Expose Troubling Weaknesses In Record-High Stock Market: &#8216;This Is Not Normal&#8217;</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Bank of America&#8217;s latest economic outlook for the U.S. paints a complex picture of steady but gradually fading economic growth, persistent inflation and a delayed start to the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate cuts. </a>
The bank&#8217;s economist, Michael Gapen, emphasizes a &#8220;higher-for-longer&#8221; rates environment, with the first rate cut expected only in December.&nbsp;
Bank of America expects the factors that have driven the U.S. economy&#8217;s outperformance in recent years — such as robust labor force growth, employment catch-up effects, supportive fiscal policies and increased domestic manufacturing investment — to gradually fade.
The bank projects a slowdown in real GDP growth from 3.1% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. Modestly restrictive financial conditions, tighter bank lending standards, diminishing wealth effects and a strong dollar are seen as significant headwinds.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Persistent Inflation Concerns</h1>
Inflation is expected to decelerate but remain sticky, particularly in the services sector. Gapen notes that while the rebound in the labor force exerts positive supply effects on inflation, it also leads to greater employment, income, and spending, which maintain demand pressures.
Core PCE inflation is forecasted to end 2024 at 2.8%, before slowing to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. 
&#8220;The combination of stronger growth and sticky inflation has led us to embrace high-for-longer rates,&#8221; Gapen explains, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. economy as indicative of higher neutral rates than pre-pandemic levels.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Delayed Rate Cuts and Fiscal Moderation</h1>
The higher-than-expected inflation in the first quarter has delayed the rate-cutting cycle. Bank of America now expects elevated year-on-year rates of core PCE inflation through the end of 2024. 
The terminal rate in this easing cycle is projected to be between 3.50% and 3.75% in 2026. 
&#8220;Our outlook has a higher-for-longer flavor, with later and fewer cuts than many expect, in order to keep inflation on a downward trajectory,&#8221; Gapen notes.
The bank also anticipates a moderation in fiscal policy and business investment growth. 
Recent data suggest this moderation is already occurring, with the contribution from government spending to GDP at only 0.2 percentage points in Q1 2024. 
Following an underwhelming tax season, the fiscal year 2024 deficit has been revised up to $1.8 trillion (6.3% of GDP), from the previously expected $1.62 trillion (6.0% of GDP).
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Market Forecasts And Risks Ahead</h1>
On the market front, Bank of America expects the S&amp;P 500 index, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), to end the year at 5,400 points, marginally lower than current levels. 
Analysts are bullish on gold, as monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), forecasting the yellow metal to reach $2,500 per ounce by year-end, a nearly 6% surge from current levels.
&#8220;Our forecast could easily be described as a gilded glidepath: it&#8217;s close to perfection in every dimension. Won&#8217;t something go wrong?,&#8221; Gapen wrote.
Bank of America acknowledges several risks to its forecast, including a faster-than-expected end to catch-up employment, rising inflation prompting more Fed tightening, inefficiencies from an industrial-policy-led investment boom, geopolitical risks, and the upcoming elections.
The upcoming U.S. election is also highlighted as a potential wildcard, with significant implications for the economy.
Michael Hartnett, Bank of America&#8217;s chief investment strategist, points out that the 2024 election will be the first in 30 years where Baby Boomers are not the majority voting bloc. 
Key issues for younger voters, such as inflation, healthcare, and housing, could shape fiscal policies and markets going forward.
Read Now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39415117/nvidia-analyst-says-the-ai-party-isnt-over-any-volatility-likely-to-be-short-lived">Nvidia Analyst Says The AI Party Isn&#8217;t Over: &#8216;Any Volatility Likely To Be Short-Lived&#8217;</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Bank Of America Predicts First Rate Cut In December: 'Higher-For-Longer Flavor'

On Thursday, June 20, U.S. stock markets closed mixed as Nvidia retreated from earlier gains, and investors evaluated economic data and Federal Reserve comments for clues on potential interest-rate cuts.
According to the economic data, U.S. jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 238,000 in the week ending June 15, slightly above expectations. The four-week moving average rose to 232,750, the highest since September 2023. In May 2024, housing stats dropped 5.5% to 1.27 million, below forecasts, and building permits fell 3.8% to 1.386 million.
The Philadelphia Fed&#8217;s general activity index fell to 1.3 in June, with employment levels continuing to decline despite a slight rise in the employment index.
Energy and utilities were the top performers among the 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, while technology experienced the largest decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.77% and closed at 39,134.76. The S&amp;P 500 declined 0.25%, ending the day at 5,473.17, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.81%, finishing the session at 17,717.90.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.07%, ending the session at 38,621.00, led by losses in the Shipbuilding, Railway &amp; Bus and Steel sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 closed higher at 0.34%, ending the day at 7,796.00, led by gains in the Gold, Utilities, and Energy sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 closed lower by 0.28% at 23,501.10, and Nifty 500 fell 0.31% at 22,236.20.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was down 0.24%, ending the session at 2,998.14, and the Shenzhen CSI fell 0.22%, closing at 3,495.62.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session lower by 1.53% at 18,053.96.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index declined 0.79%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX fell 0.47%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was down 0.60%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 traded lower by 0.93%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.04% at $81.26/bbl, and Brent was down 0.06% at $85.66 bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 1.93% to $2.687.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.27% at $2,375.60, Silver fell 1.22% to $30.448, and Copper was down 1.59% to $4.4895.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:15 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 futures slid 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures declined 0.08%.
Forex at 06:15 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.13% to 105.72, USD/JPY was up 0.03% at 158.95, and USD/AUD rose 0.13% to 1.5043.
The U.S. dollar remains strong due to a relatively hawkish Fed, despite weak housing and labor market data. The Fed is cautious about cutting rates, reducing its forecast for this year from three to one.
Photo by Sharon McCutcheon via Unsplash

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Asia And Europe Markets Dip, While US Dollar Strengthens - Global Markets Today While US Slept

After the Juneteenth holiday break, Wall Street reopened with a cautious tone, as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices declined after hitting all-time highs around midday trading in New York. This decline was driven by profit-taking in chipmaker stocks and rising Treasury yields, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">which dampened risk sentiment.</a>
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) fell by 2.4%, marking its worst session since May 1, after reaching technically &#8220;overbought&#8221; levels earlier in the week.
Oil prices surged above $81 a barrel, aiming for the highest close since late April. This was spurred by larger-than-expected drops in U.S. inventories last week, fueling a rally in oil-related companies.
Small caps also softened, whereas blue chips saw a rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperforming other major indices with a 0.4% gain.
Long-dated Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield up by 5 basis points to 4.27%, following mixed economic data released earlier in the day. Jobless claims slightly increased more than expected last week, and a manufacturing activity gauge in the Philadelphia region fell short of estimates, reaching its lowest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/06/39411920/jobless-claims-exceed-estimates-philly-fed-index-declines-housing-starts-and-permits-fall-sharpl">level in five months. </a>
Additionally, housing data showed sharp declines in both housing starts and building permits, reigniting concerns about a tight real estate market.
Bonds fell, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down 0.9%. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose 0.4%, with the greenback gaining ground against all major currencies.
The Bank of England kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, while the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 0.25 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/24/06/39415866/interest-rate-decisions-bank-of-england-holds-firm-swiss-national-bank-reduces-further-will-fed-cut">percentage points to 1.25%</a>. Consequently, the British pound and the Swiss franc fell by 0.5% and 0.8%, respectively, against the dollar.
Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), rose by 1.1%, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) remained flat below $65,000.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>38,982.71</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,477.61</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,020.24</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,793.76</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:55 pm ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;was 0.3% lower to $547.24.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;was 0.4% higher to $390.90.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(ARCA:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/qqq" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>QQQ) was 0.6% lower to $482.43.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>)&nbsp;outperformed, up by 1.8%, while the&nbsp;Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) lagged, falling 0.9%.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h2>
<ul>
<li>The world&#8217;s biggest company Nvidia Corp. witnessed a 2% decline, while Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QCOM#NASDAQ">QCOM</a>), Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) and Wolfspeed Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WOLF#NASDAQ">WOLF</a>) all tumbled by over 5%.</li>
<li>Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) surged nearly 4%, outperforming all other chipmakers. This rise followed the announcement that Sun Singapore Systems, the largest parking solutions provider in Singapore, has selected AMD to power its AI-based parking management platform.</li>
<li>Solar-related stocks experienced sharp declines after JPMorgan reduced price targets on Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENPH#NASDAQ">ENPH</a>) from $128 to $124 and on SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SEDG#NASDAQ">SEDG</a>) from $73 to $59.</li>
<li>Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GILD#NASDAQ">GILD</a>) soared over 8% after the company announced that a twice-yearly antiviral injection had successfully prevented HIV in all test subjects during a trial involving thousands of women and girls in South Africa and Uganda.</li>
<li>Accenture plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ACN#NYSE">ACN</a>) rose over 6%, despite missing both revenue and earnings estimate last quarter. </li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to company earnings were The Kroger Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KR#NYSE">KR</a>), down 2.8%, Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DRI#NYSE">DRI</a>), down 1.5%, Jabil Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JBL#NYSE">JBL</a>), down 8.7% and Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMC#NYSE">CMC</a>), up 5%. </li>
</ul>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/06/39416977/supreme-court-upholds-2017-tax-on-foreign-profits-for-us-businesses">Supreme Court Upholds 2017 Tax On Foreign Profits For US Businesses</a>
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S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Dip From Record Highs As Investors Take Chipmaker Profits; Energy Sector Rebounds, Yields Rise: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-20_08h11_21.png" style="height:394px; width:700px" />
<h3>Deteriorating Internals</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-jobless-claims-quad-witching-qqq-mc-06202024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that Nasdaq 100 is way overextended above the support zone.</li>
<li>Overextended markets work only as long as momentum stays high.&nbsp;If momentum stops, the market tends to pullback.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the volume is low as the market drives higher.&nbsp;This indicates lack of conviction.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows Nasdaq 100 is very overbought.&nbsp;Risk and reward are two sides of the same coin.&nbsp;A market as overbought as this one is risky.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should pay attention to deteriorating internals of Nasdaq 100.&nbsp;There are more one month lows than one month highs in the Nasdaq 100 stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The stock market, including AI stocks such as NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/hpe#NYSE">HPE</a>), Dell Technologies Inc (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/dell#NYSE">DELL</a>), Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/smci#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>), and Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsm#NYSE">TSM</a>), are being pulled higher by quadruple witching.&nbsp;Tomorrow is quadruple witching.&nbsp;In quadruple witching, stock index futures, futures options, stock options, and single stock futures expire.&nbsp; Quadruple witching often leads to volatility.</li>
<li>There are many factors driving NVDA stock higher.&nbsp;An important factor driving NVDA higher is the market mechanic of gamma squeeze.</li>
<li>There are two pieces of news that are noteworthy for investors.
<ul>
<li>Hackers claim that they have breached Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) source code.&nbsp;If true, it would sully Apple&rsquo;s image of invisibility.</li>
<li>Elon Musk says that Dell is assembling half of the racks for the super computer being built by xAI.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 238K vs. 237K consensus.&nbsp;We have previously emphasized the importance of looking at the four week moving average. The four week moving average is rising, indicating that the jobs picture is beginning to weaken.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h4>Housing</h4>
Housing data is weaker than expected.&nbsp;Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Housing starts came at 1.277M vs. 1.385M consensus.</li>
<li>Building permits came at 1.386M vs. 1.455M consensus.</li>
</ul>
<h3>England</h3>
The Bank of England (BoE) has decided to hold rates steady.&nbsp;The vote was seven to two.&nbsp;BoE is showing a dovish tilt.
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>) and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
Note for new investors: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.&nbsp;Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money&rsquo;s ways.&nbsp; The exception is in a raging bull market &ndash; for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
<h3>Gold</h3>
The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV).&nbsp;
<h3>Oil</h3>
The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.&nbsp; Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound. The post holiday buying is being met with selling in bitcoin.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp;A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp;When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

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Quad Witching Driving AI Stocks Including Nvidia Higher, More One Month Lows Than Highs In NASDAQ

On Tuesday, June 18th, the U.S. stock markets finished in green. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs, driven by Nvidia&#8217;s surge, while the Dow edged up slightly amid subdued pre-holiday trading and weak U.S. retail sales data.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) overtook Microsoft (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) to become the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/06/39386946/microsoft-apple-step-aside-nvidia-is-now-the-most-valuable-public-company-in-the-world" rel="noreferrer noopener">world&#8217;s most valuable company</a>, with a market cap of $3.22 trillion.
According to economic data, the U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in May, missing expectations of 0.2%, while industrial production increased by 0.9%, exceeding the forecast of 0.3%.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed higher, led by industrials, tech, and financials, while communication services and consumer discretionary stocks ended lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.15% and closed at 38,834.86. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.25%, ending the day at 5,487.03, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.02%, finishing the session at 17,860.43.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 gained 0.29%, ending the session at 38,646.50, led by gains in the Textile, Chemical, and Services sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 closed almost flat at 0.004%, ending the day at 7,769.40. Losses in the Healthcare, IT, and Consumer Staples sectors led to the decline.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 closed higher by 0.22% at 23,567.00, and Nifty 500 gained 0.36% at 22,305.10.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was down 0.42%, ending the session at 3,005.44, and the Shenzhen CSI fell 0.72%, closing at 3,503.28.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session lower by 0.63% at 18,313.72.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 07:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.87%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX rose 0.54%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was up 1.01%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 traded higher by 0.43%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 07:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.09% at $80.78/bbl, and Brent was up 0.31% at $85.31 bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 1.58% to $2.863.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.26% at $2,352.95, Silver rose 2.59% to $30.335, and Copper was up 0.43% to $4.4095.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 07:15 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.13%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.45%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.66%.
Forex at 07:15 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.13% to 105.39, USD/JPY was up 0.22% at 158.44, and USD/AUD fell 0.02% to 1.4987.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia Mixed, Europe Markets Advance While Crude Hits $80 Again - Global Markets Today While US Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-18_09h01_59.png" style="height:383px; width:700px" />
<h3>Canary In The Coal Mine</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-weak-retail-sales-spy-mc-06182024">click here </a>for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market continues to move higher.</li>
<li>On SPY, $550 is the magnet for short term traders.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the market is now significantly above the support zone.&nbsp;This illustrates that in the middle of the AI buying frenzy, if the momentum turns down, the momo crowd that is buying aggressively now can quickly incur substantial losses.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the volume continues to be low, indicating a lack of conviction in the momentum driven rally concentrated in AI stocks.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is very overbought.&nbsp;Overbought markets tend to be vulnerable to pullbacks.</li>
<li>The market can continue to go higher on momentum, but for the longer term, this momentum will be sustainable only if the following occurs:
<ul>
<li>The Fed aggressively starts cutting rates.</li>
<li>AI driven productivity rises faster than The Arora Report currently projects.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The Arora Report has been sharing with you for a while that the consumer, especially at the low end, has spent most of the liquidity they gained from free money and other government programs. &nbsp;We have also been sharing with you that the call on the low end consumer should start showing up in the data.&nbsp;The just released retail sales data shows that The Arora Report calls have been spot on.</li>
<li>Prudent investors pay attention to retail sales.&nbsp;The reason is that the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp;Retail sales are a good indication of how the consumer is doing.&nbsp;Here are details of the just released data:
<ul>
<li>Headline retail sales came at 0.1% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex-auto came at -0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The momo crowd is oblivious and continues to aggressively buy AI stocks.</li>
<li>If it was not for the obliviousness of the momo crowd, the stock market would have dropped significantly on the weak retail sales data. The reason is that the momo crowd is taking for granted that there will be no landing.&nbsp;Even smart analysts are lock, stock, and barrel investing based on a soft landing.&nbsp; Retail sales are like a canary in a coal mine.</li>
<li>In noteworthy news, Fisker Inc (OTC: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/fsrn#OTC">FSRN</a>), once an EV favorite of the mom crowd,&nbsp; has filed bankruptcy.&nbsp;The lesson for investors is that it is fine to do short term trades based on momentum, but good investments require 360 degree analysis.</li>
<li>20-year Treasury auction results will be announced at 1pm ET and may move the market.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.&nbsp; Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
Note for new investors: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.&nbsp;Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money&rsquo;s ways.&nbsp;The exception is in a raging bull market &ndash; for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
<h3>Gold</h3>
The momo crowd is like a yoyo in gold in the early trade.&nbsp; Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV).&nbsp;
<h3>Oil</h3>
The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.&nbsp; Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Penny Stocks

FSRN

Prudent Investors Pay Attention To Canary In Coal Mine – Oblivious Momo Crowd Supporting The Market

On Monday, June 17th, the U.S. stock markets finished strong, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq achieving record highs. This was driven by a surge in technology stocks amid excitement over artificial intelligence. Apple and Microsoft bounced back from initial dips.
Economic indicators showed improvement as the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index increased to -6 in June from -15.6 in May, surpassing market expectations of -12.50.
The S&amp;P 500&#8217;s sectors mostly finished higher, with industrials, information technology, and consumer discretionary stocks leading the gains, while utilities and real estate sectors lagged behind.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.49% and closed at 38,778.10. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.77%, ending the day at 5,473.23, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.94%, finishing the session at 17,855.06.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 gained 0.93%, ending the session at 38,427.50, led by gains in the Pharmaceutical Industry, Steel, and Fishery sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 rose 1.01%, ending the day at 7,778.10, led by gains in the Utilities, Financials, and Industrials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 closed higher by 0.39% at 23,557.90, and Nifty 500 gained 0.52% at 22,329.60.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was up 0.48%, ending the session at 3,030.25, and the Shenzhen CSI rose 0.27%, closing at 3,545.59.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session lower by 0.11% at 17,915.55.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.56%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX rose 0.34%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was up 0.47%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 traded higher by 0.38%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.20% at $79.56/bbl, and Brent was down 0.20% at $84.08 bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 0.29% to $2.796.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.15% at $2,325.35, Silver fell 0.53% to $29.235, and Copper was down 1.16% to $4.43970.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:15 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.06%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.14%.
Forex at 06:15 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.16% to 105.49, USD/JPY was up 0.25% at 158.10, and USD/AUD fell 0.15% to 1.5102.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Advance, Crude Near $80 While Dollar Gains - Global Markets Today While US Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-17_08h34_23.png" style="height:360px; width:700px" />
<h3>Pay Attention To The Average Stock</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-driving-rally-copper-trade-rsp-nvda-spy-mc-06172024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows SPY compared to Invesco S&amp;P 500 Eql Wght ETF (ARCA: RSP) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).&nbsp;SPY is cap weighted.</li>
<li>The chart shows that SPY has gained 2.6% over the last 30 days while RSP has lost 2.45%.</li>
<li>The chart shows that NVDA has gained 39.76% during the same period.</li>
<li>Make no mistake, it is an NVDA rally, taking along other AI stocks.&nbsp;However, the average stock is doing poorly.</li>
<li>History teaches that it is not prudent to become overly aggressive when the average stock is doing poorly.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>As full disclosure, members and readers of The Arora Report are long NVDA stock from $12.55.&nbsp;The Arora target is $163 -&nbsp; $172.</li>
<li>The Arora Report was bullish on AI and NVDA before almost anyone else.&nbsp;Having said that, an important data point is that the most often asked question we get now is from investors wanting to jump on the bandwagon and buy NVDA stock now.&nbsp;Based on the history of the questions we have received over a long time, this indicates extreme bullish sentiment on NVDA stock.&nbsp;Consider the following:
<ul>
<li>Extreme bullish sentiment is a contrary signal.&nbsp;It is worth a reminder that sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.</li>
<li>Analysts who have been bullish on NVDA stock from much lower prices are not recommending jumping on the NVDA bandwagon now.</li>
<li>Analysts who totally missed NVDA&rsquo;s rise are now jumping in, recommending their followers to go all in on NVDA.</li>
<li>The recent rise in NVDA is mostly driven by retail investors.</li>
<li>Historically, retail investors tend to be wrong at turning points.</li>
<li>Technically NVDA is very overbought.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Investors should remember two historical factors:
<ul>
<li>Analysts are expecting NVDA to grow 70% per year over the next five years.&nbsp;This is something that no large cap U.S. stock has ever accomplished in the entire market history.</li>
<li>Out of the ten most popular stocks in 1988 that retail investors were rushing headlong to buy, eight no longer exist. The only two that still exist are IBM Common Stock&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ibm#NYSE">IBM</a>) and General Electric Co (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ge#NYSE">GE</a>).</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Prudent investors who do not already own NVDA stock may consider buying on a dip in the Arora buy zone.</li>
<li>The Fed&rsquo;s Kashkari said that the Fed can take its time before cutting rates.</li>
<li>More Fed speak is ahead that may be market moving.</li>
<li>The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp;Therefore, prudent investors pay attention to retail sales.&nbsp;All important retail sales data will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Red Hot Copper Trade</h3>
The AI driven red hot copper trade is getting hurt on data from China.&nbsp;Here are the two pieces of data from China that are hurting copper:
<ul>
<li>House prices declined by 3.9% year-over-year.</li>
<li>Industrial production grew by 5.6% year-over-year vs. 6.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Europe</h3>
There were early gains in Europe as investors bought on Marine Le Pen&rsquo;s statement that she would cooperate with President Macron and respect political institutions.&nbsp;However, the rally was met with selling, causing gains to mostly disappear
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and positive in Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
Note for new investors: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.&nbsp;Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money&rsquo;s ways.&nbsp; The exception is in a raging bull market &ndash; for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
<h3>Gold</h3>
The momo crowd is selling gold in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV).&nbsp;
<h3>Oil</h3>
The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing slight selling in the early trade.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp;If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp;A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Rydex ETF Trust Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF

Nvidia Driving Stock Market Rally, Average Stock Is A Different Story, AI Copper Trade Hurting

On Friday, June 14th, the U.S. stock markets showed mixed results. The Nasdaq achieved a record high for the fifth consecutive day, propelled by gains in Adobe and other tech stocks. In contrast, both the S&amp;P 500 and Dow closed slightly lower.
Economic data showed a decline in University of Michigan consumer sentiment to 65.6 in June, its lowest since November, and U.S. import and export prices fell by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, in May.
Several sectors on the S&amp;P 500 closed in the red, with industrials, materials, and energy recording the biggest losses, although information technology and communication services stocks managed to end the session higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.15% and closed at 38,589.16. The S&amp;P 500 slid 0.04%, ending the day at 5,431.60, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.15%, finishing the session at 17,693.43.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Monday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 2.01%, ending the session at 38,074.50, led by losses in the Transportation Equipment, Steel, and Banking sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 declined 0.31%, ending the day at 7,700.30, led by losses in the IT, Energy, and Resources sectors.</li>
<li>India Markets closed for the Bakri Id holiday.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was down 0.55%, ending the session at 3,015.89, and the Shenzhen CSI fell 0.15%, closing at 3,536.20.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session lower by 0.03% at 17,936.12.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.34%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX was up 0.05%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was up 0.23%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 traded lower by 0.01%.</li>
<li>European stock markets slightly increased after last week&#8217;s losses, with investors anticipating key economic data and a Bank of England policy meeting. The DAX and CAC 40 each gained, while the FTSE 100 remained steady. The rise follows political shifts in the European Parliament elections.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:15 AM ET
Crude Oil&#8217;s WTI was trading lower by 0.19% at $77.89/bbl, and Brent was down 0.19% at $82.45/bbl.
Natural Gas declined 2.22% to $2.817.
Gold was trading lower by 0.52% at $2,337.00, Silver fell 0.64% to $29.285, and Copper was down 1.44% to $4.4305.
US Futures at 06:15 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.25%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.11%.
Forex at 06:15 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.01% to 105.55, USD/JPY was up 0.14% at 157.60, and USD/AUD rose 0.10% to 1.5148.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia Dips, European Markets Advance, While Crude And Gold Trade Lower - Global Markets Today While US Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2024-06-14_08h56_32.png" style="height:430px; width:700px" />
<h3>AI To The Rescue?</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-negative-sentiment-europe-ai-ewq-mc-06142024">click here </a>for an enlarged chart of&nbsp;iShares MSCI France ETF (ARCA: EWQ).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>In the early trade, the sentiment in the U.S. stock market is being dampened by the drop in the French market.</li>
<li>On June 10, we alerted you in the Morning Capsule,</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>In France, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament and called a snap election.&nbsp; Marine Le Pen&#39;s far right National Rally won 36.8% of the vote compared to Macron&#39;s party winning 14.6% of the vote.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>The chart shows the initial drop in the French market on the news of the defeat of Macron&rsquo;s party. As we previously alerted you, on June 10 in the early trade the news not only from France but also from the rest of Europe dampened the sentiment in the U.S. stock market, but the AI frenzy quickly overpowered the negatives.</li>
<li>The chart shows another big drop in the French market today.&nbsp;The reason is threefold:
<ul>
<li>Opinion polls are showing that Le Pen&rsquo;s far right party and related parties will finish with as many as 270 seats in the 577 seat National Assembly.&nbsp;If this prediction comes true, Le Pen would be winning triple the number of seats her party won in 2022.</li>
<li>Since Macron&rsquo;s call for a snap election was a surprise, the expectation was that the far left parties would not have enough time to unite to fight the election and go against Macron.&nbsp;The fact is that far left parties have managed to quickly unite and plan to take Macron head on.</li>
<li>Macron&rsquo;s party is now pinned squarely between the far left and far right.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Thank you for all of your great questions about the French election.&nbsp;Here is the answer to your questions. As a reference, Macron&rsquo;s party has been pro-business and pro-reform.&nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, a win by the far right or far left will be an earthquake against pro-business policies, not only in France but throughout Europe.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, looking ahead, a big win by either the far right or the far left in Europe will be a big negative for the U.S. stock market.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In the U.S. stock market, the AI frenzy has been overpowering everything else.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, there is a fair probability that for the very, very short term the AI frenzy has reached a peak.&nbsp; In plain English this means that there is a fair probability of a shallow pullback.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The market always has crosscurrents.&nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, there is a positive development for the market.&nbsp; The Fed&rsquo;s Mester is saying that it is inappropriate to keep rates at the current level until the 2% inflation target is reached.&nbsp;Mester&rsquo;s remarks are bringing in buying.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>University of Michigan sentiment survey data will be released at 10am ET.&nbsp;It may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Japan</h3>
Contrary to expectations, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) did not provide details on bond buying cuts.&nbsp;To prevent the market from overreacting, BOJ Governor Ueda left the door open for a July rate hike.&nbsp; The lack of detail is adding to negative sentiment in Europe and Asia.&nbsp; It is not clear as of this writing if this sentiment will carry over to the U.S.
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is selling stocks in the early trade.
Note for new investors: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.&nbsp;Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money&rsquo;s ways.&nbsp;The exception is in a raging bull market &ndash; for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
<h3>Gold</h3>
The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD).&nbsp;The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV).&nbsp;
<h3>Oil</h3>
The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.&nbsp; Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp;If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp;A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Negative Sentiment From France Impacting U.S. Stocks – Will AI Come To The Rescue?

On Thursday, June 13th, U.S. stock markets closed mixed, with the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500 reaching record highs for the fourth consecutive session, fueled by advances in technology and subdued inflation data, despite lower U.S. Treasury yields and moderated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
According to economic data, U.S. producer prices dropped 0.2% in May, defying expectations of a gain, while initial jobless claims rose to 242,000, exceeding forecasts. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but hinted at fewer rate cuts ahead.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors fell, led by declines in communication services, energy, and industrials, while information technology and real estate stocks rose.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.17% and closed at 38,647.10. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.23%, ending the day at 5,433.74, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.33%, finishing the session at 17,665.90.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 gained 0.36%, ending the session at 38,854.50, led by gains in the Chemical, Petroleum &amp; Plastic, Transportation Equipment, and Precision Instruments sectors.</li>
<li>The Bank of Japan plans to reduce its bond purchases and will detail next month how it intends to decrease its nearly $5 trillion balance sheet. Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at a possible interest rate hike in July due to rising import costs from a weaker yen, even as the bank maintained its short-term policy rate and current bond purchasing pace.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 declined 0.33% ending the day at 7,724.30, led by losses in the Gold, Telecoms Services and IT sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 gained 0.29% to close at 23,465.60, and the Nifty 500 closed higher by 0.63% at 22,214.30.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was up 0.12%, ending the session at 3,032.63, and the Shenzhen CSI rose 0.44%, closing at 3,541.53.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session lower by 0.94% at 17,941.78.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index declined 1.78%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX slid 1.31%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was down 2.45%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 traded lower by 0.49%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:15 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.36% at $78.35/bbl, and Brent was down 0.18% at $82.59 bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 0.41% to $2.947.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 1.12% at $2,344.35, Silver rose 0.49% to $29.215, and Copper was down 0.46% to $4.4618.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:15 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.86%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.54%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures declined 0.29%.
Forex at 06:15 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.42% to 105.64, USD/JPY was down 0.07% at 156.93, and USD/AUD rose 0.38% to 1.5127.
Photo by rafastockbr on Shutterstock

Asia Mixed, European Markets Continue To Decline While Dollar Advances - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Gold and silver held steady. The Dollar chopped sideways.

Stocks And Precious Metals Charts - So Ends The Month

 PCE numbers below expectations had mostly bearish implications, even if the immediate-term or short-term reaction was bullish.

Would Low PCE Index Take Gold To The Moon?

$3,000 gold by 2025 not far-fetched, with upside for miners - Sprott's Hathaway

How To Invest $100,000 For Big Dividends From 3 Big Macro Trends

The Japanese yen - the gob of spit keeping the Keynesian pyramid together - keeps plunging lower, and the Bank of Japan has yet to respond.

The Forex Markets Are Beginning To Break Down

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in the gold and other relevant metal markets.

Metal Markets Report For Friday, June 28

There was no big dump or big buying into month end or quarter end for Gold and Silver. The metals and miners remain in correction mode.

Gold & Silver Manage Good Quarterly Closes

If the price manages to go above 2360 it will be an indication of the bullish breakout that could potentially move the price even higher.

Gold: XAUUSD Trading Strategy, Analysis And Forecast

Year-to-date, it has been all mega-cap tech all the time, dragging the S&P and Nasdaq up dramatically (decoupling from The Dow and Small Caps with Trannies in the red in H1). Breadth remains dreadful - going nowhere at all.

S&P Surges To Best Election Year H1 Since 1976 As Rate-Cut Hopes & Macro Data Collapse

The dot plot's rates outlook is one fewer than what the futures market is pricing in. These traders are betting there will be one cut each in September and December. Early this year, they expected six to seven cuts.


Thomas R. CarperSenate (D-DE)	$1K - $15K	Sale (Partial)	Mar 29, 2024	Mar 13, 2024	Senate
Mike GarciaHouse (R-CA)	$15K - $50K	Sale	Jun 20, 2023	Jun 08, 2023	House
Thomas R. CarperSenate (D-DE)	$1K - $15K	Sale	Sep 02, 2022	Aug 10, 2022	Senate
Thomas R. CarperSenate (D-DE)	$1K - $15K	Sale (Partial)	Jun 03, 2022	May 10, 2022	Senate
Thomas R. CarperSenate (D-DE)	$1K - $15K	Purchase	Apr 05, 2022	Mar 07, 2022	Senate
Thomas R. CarperSenate (D-DE)	$1K - $15K	Purchase	Apr 05, 2022	Mar 07, 2022	Senate
Thomas R. CarperSenate (D-DE)	$1K - $15K	Sale (Partial)	Feb 03, 2022	Jan 26, 2022	Senate
Thomas R. CarperSenate (D-DE)	$1K - $15K	Purchase	Feb 03, 2022	Jan 18, 2022	Senate
Thomas R. CarperSenate (D-DE)	$1K - $15K	Purchase	Aug 02, 2021	Jul 26, 2021	Senate

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