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The investment aims to track the daily percentage changes in its shares’ per share NAV, mirroring the daily percentage changes in the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma. This alignment is measured by the daily shifts in the price of a specified short-term futures contract on light, sweet crude oil known as the “Benchmark Oil Futures Contract,” along with the interest earned on USO’s collateral holdings, after deducting USO’s expenses. USO primarily invests in futures contracts for various fuels, including light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, diesel-heating oil, gasoline, natural gas, and other petroleum-based fuels.

United States Oil Fund LP *

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Opportunities For Investors As AI Frenzy Shifts From Semiconductors To Software

Impact Of A Weaker Currency

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US markets closed higher on Thursday, with gains in Dow (+461), S&amp;P 500 (+32), and Nasdaq (+6). Economic data showed positive home sales but weak manufacturing and jobless claims. Most S&amp;P sectors rose except for discretionary and communication services. Asian markets were mixed, with Japan and Australia up and China and Hong Kong down. European markets were down, while oil and gold prices increased. US futures declined and the dollar strengthened.

Asia Mixed, Europe Mostly In Red; Dollar Hits 13-Month High - Global Markets Today While US Slept

chris-liverani-dBI_My696Rk-unsplash (3)

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Nvidia Aggressively Bought, Russia Fires First Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, Adani Indicted

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Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine are roiling global energy markets. Rising prices could impact US consumer bills. 

Natural Gas Prices Spike To Over 1-Year Highs, Oil Surges To $70 As Ukraine Says Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Fired By Russia

Macro,Shot,Of,Computer,Monitor,With,World,Stock,Market,Chart

U.S. markets close mixed, mortgage apps up 1.7%. Healthcare, energy, materials lead S&amp;P gains. Nikkei, ASX, Nifty slide. Oil prices rise.

Asia And Europe Markets Mixed; Dollar Hovers Near 52-Week High - Global Markets Today While US Slept

U.S. markets ended mixed, with Nasdaq up 1%, S&amp;P 500 higher due to tech gains and Walmart&#39;s raised forecast. Dow down. Asia markets mostly lower.

Asia Mixed, Europe Markets Gain; Gold Slips And Dollar Gains Against Yen - Global Markets Today While US Slept

regularguy-eth-w9coDxtsfts-unsplash

Not World War III But New Russian Nuclear Doctrine Brings Selling In Stocks, Walmart Breaks Out


On Nov 18, US markets were mixed as investors awaited Nvidia&#39;s Q3 earnings and potential policy shifts under Trump. NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 46. S&amp;P 500 sectors rose, led by energy, communication services, and consumer discretionary stocks. Dow Jones down 0.13%, S&amp;P 500 up 0.39%, Nasdaq Composite rose 0.60%. Japan&#39;s Nikkei 225 gained 0.45%, Australia&#39;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 rose 0.89%, India&#39;s Nifty 50 closed 0.07% higher, China&#39;s Shanghai Composite gained 0.67%, and Hong Kong&#39;s Hang Seng gained 0.44%. European STOXX 50 down 1.47%, Germany&#39;s DAX down 1.07%, France&#39;s CAC down 1.32%, FTSE 100 down 0.50%. Crude Oil WTI trading at $68.56/bbl, Brent at $72.75/bbl. Natural Gas up 0.30%, Gold up 0.94%, Silver up 0.92%, Copper down 0.45%. Dow futures down 0.53%, S&amp;P 500 futures

Asia Up, Europe Markets Slip; Oil Prices Pressured While Gold Strengthens - Global Markets Today While US Slept

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A Must See Chart For Prudent Investors, Trump To Help Tesla Dominate, Nvidia Heat Problem

On Fri, Nov 15, US markets closed lower due to delayed interest rate cuts, economic data, &amp; Trump&#39;s cabinet picks. Asian markets mixed on Mon.

Asia And Europe Markets Mostly Lower, Dollar&#39;s Uptrend Continues - Global Markets Today While US Slept

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-22_07h31_01-scaled.jpg" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">AI Frenzy Shifts</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-ai-frenzy-shift-software-stocks-igv-smh-mc-11222024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart comparing VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>) and iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IGV#BATS">IGV</a>).&nbsp;
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The Arora Report previously shared with readers that the next stage of AI would benefit software stocks.&nbsp; This is beginning to happen now.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows software ETF IGV has moved up since the presidential election.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that IGV has outperformed semiconductor ETF SMH by about 10% since the election.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The Arora Report algorithms show money is flowing out of semiconductors and into software.</li>
<li>AI allows work processes to be totally reimagined compared to work processes of today.&nbsp; Work processes of today are implemented with legacy software.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, it is an order of magnitude more efficient to use reimagined processes with AI native software.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, there is a battle brewing among software companies for market share when it comes to AI capabilities.&nbsp; Legacy software companies have existing customers and cash to invest in AI.&nbsp; Legacy software companies are bolting on AI offerings.&nbsp; AI native software companies have an edge technologically.&nbsp; However, they do not have an existing market share.&nbsp; Promising AI native software companies are privately held.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The foregoing tells us that AI will end up decimating some software companies while others will go to new heights.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Investors need to look forward.&nbsp; Right now, most investors who are investing in software companies are looking backwards.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Looking forward to 2030, the best way to capture AI opportunities in software companies is to combine the following three:
<ul>
<li>Profiting from a base position in a software ETF.&nbsp; The Arora Report's software ETF of choice is IGV.&nbsp; As full disclosure, IGV is in The Arora Report's ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Profiting from individual software company stocks that are evolving and keeping pace with AI developments and retaining and attracting customers.&nbsp; An example is PLTR and as full disclosure, PLTR was recently added to The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Profiting from shorting software companies whose business models are being hurt by AI.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>A judicious combination of the foregoing will produce significantly higher risk adjusted returns, compared to using only one of the three in your investments.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In the early trade, the momo crowd is aggressively buying junk stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
Chinese stocks are ultra cheap.&nbsp; The rally in Chinese stock has stalled after Trump's re-election.&nbsp; Trump wants to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.&nbsp; In the face of Trump's threat, China's 10 year note auction saw strong demand.&nbsp; The pricing was close to the record low yield.&nbsp; This data point indicates that investors believe China will manage just fine with Trump's tariffs.&nbsp;&nbsp;
In The Arora Report analysis, it is important to keep track of such data points. &nbsp;If there are more such data points, it will be time to step into Chinese stocks because they are so cheap.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).&nbsp;
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is approaching $100K. SEC Chair Gensler has said that he will resign on Trump's inauguration day.&nbsp; Gensler has been anti-bitcoin.&nbsp; Even though Gensler's resignation was expected, as Trump has said he would replace Gensler, buying came into bitcoin on the news.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.&nbsp;
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Macro Economic Events

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U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count +1 At 479 Vs 478 Prior; U.S. Baker Hughes NatGas Rig Count -2 At 99 Vs 101 Prior

Macro Notification

Russia's Putin Says Russia Will Put This Weapon Into Service; Russian Missile Forces Commander Says New Russian Missile Can Hit Targets Throughout Europe

On Thursday, November 21, U.S. markets closed higher, with the Dow climbing 461 points, the S&amp;P 500 adding 32 points, and the Nasdaq edging up by 6 points. Salesforce led the Dow with solid gains, while Nvidia advanced on strong earnings despite tempered growth projections. Alphabet faced a sharp decline following antitrust pressures from the Justice Department.
According to economic data, U.S. existing home sales rose by 3.5% in October to an annualized 3.96 million. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -5.5 in November, missing market expectations of 8. Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 213,000 for the week ending November 16.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors rose Thursday, led by utilities, financials, and consumer staples, while consumer discretionary and communication services lagged.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.06% and closed at 43,870.35, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.53% to 5,948.70, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.03% to finish at 18,972.42.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 gained 0.84% and ended the session at 38,321.00, led by gains in the Gas &amp; Water, Transportation Equipment, and Banking sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.85% and ended the day at 8,393.80, led by gains in the Energy, Utilities and Healthcare sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 rose 2.25% to 23,875.70, and Nifty 500 gained 1.79%, closing at 22,210.40, led by gains in the Real Estate, Technology, and Public Sector Undertakings sectors.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite declined 3.06% to close at 3,267.19, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 3.10%, finishing the day at 3,865.70.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng fell 1.89% and closed the session at 19,229.97.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.25%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX slid 0.03%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC declined 0.19%.</li>
<li>FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.74%</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.06% at $70.14/bbl, and Brent was up 0.09% at $74.27/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices gained this week as Ukraine tensions escalated, raising concerns over supply disruptions, and Chinese imports showed signs of increasing.</li>
<li>Natural Gas rose 0.45% to $3.351.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.78% at $2,672.45, Silver was up 0.35% to $31.115, and Copper fell 0.83% to $4.1210.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures declined 0.17%, S&amp;P 500 futures were down 0.28% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.40%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index gained 0.33% to 107.32, the USD/JPY was down 0.08% to 154.39, and the USD/AUD rose 0.17% to 1.5387. The dollar hit a 13-month high.
Image via Shutterstock

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-21_08h52_20.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Nvidia Dips Aggressively Bought</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-nvidia-earnings-nvda-mc-11212024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point. As full disclosure, NVDA is part of The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>The chart shows the dip in NVDA stock has been aggressively bought.</li>
<li>The chart shows that NVDA stock dipped into the support zone after earnings.&nbsp; The buying in NVDA this morning has been extremely aggressive as illustrated by the fact that NVDA traded as high as $149.40 vs. the prior high of $149.77.</li>
<li>The chart shows the NVDA bounced from the support zone to the resistance zone.</li>
<li>As of this writing, NVDA stock is very volatile.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, a tell for the stock market will be to see if NVDA stock breaks out or retraces back to the support zone.</li>
<li>Nvidia reported earnings better than the consensus numbers, better than some whisper numbers, but less than the top end of the whisper numbers.</li>
<li>Overheating was a big concern going into earnings.&nbsp; It appears that most of the overheating issues have been resolved.&nbsp; Here are the key points from Nvidia earnings:
<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said, "The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to Nvidia computing."</li>
<li>Blackwell demand is likely to exceed supply in FY26.</li>
<li>Hopper demand is also very strong.</li>
<li>Nvidia is working on the next data center architecture that will improve production yields.</li>
<li>Nvidia expects enterprise AI, industrial AI, and robotics to continue to increase.</li>
<li>Nvidia beat on revenue.
<ul>
<li>Data center revenue and automotive revenue hit records.</li>
<li>Gaming revenue increased 15% from last year.</li>
<li>Professional visualization revenue increased 17% from last year.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The fact that NVDA dips are being aggressively bought is helping the overall stock market.</li>
<li>Also helping the stock market this morning is Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) approaching $100K.</li>
<li>Sentiment is extremely positive.</li>
<li>Investors are buying stocks and cryptos with total abandon.&nbsp; If it was not for the positive seasonality and year end chase, this kind of reckless buying would have resulted in increasing the protection band because extreme positive sentiment is historically a sell signal.&nbsp; However, The Arora Report call remains to buy the dips because the year end chase is likely to trump all other factors.&nbsp; In year end chase, even bearish money managers aggressively buy stocks to keep up with their benchmarks.</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 213K vs. 221K consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that the job market is very strong.&nbsp; This is another data point that shows that the Fed should not have been cutting interest rates as aggressively as it did. In the short term, the Fed's actions have poured gasoline over the fire to aggressively buy stocks and cryptos.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">First ICBM Fired</h3>
The first operational intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was developed by Russia in 1957, followed by development by the U.S. in 1959.&nbsp; To the best of our knowledge, Russia has fired the first ICBM in battle since its invention.&nbsp; This is Russia's response to Ukraine firing U.S. and British long range missiles on Russian territory.
In The Arora Report analysis, both Russia and Ukraine are escalating the conflict to gain an advantage before Trump stops the war.&nbsp; These developments have major implications for investors.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Problem For India</h3>
Gautam Adani is the most important industrialist in India.&nbsp; He is also very closely allied with India&#8217;s Prime Minister Modi.&nbsp; The U.S. Department of Justice has just indicted Adani for bribes in solar contracts.
The Indian stock market has fallen on the news.  In The Arora Report analysis, some foreign money is going to flow out of India on this development.  The Arora Report call has been to steadily take partial profits on India positions Fairfax India Holdings Corp (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FFXDF#OTC">FFXDF</a>), WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EPI#NYSE">EPI</a>), iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMIN#BATS">SMIN</a>), and VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLIN#NYSE">GLIN</a>).  The Arora Report&#8217;s call yesterday evening was to take more partial profits on India positions.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin is approaching $100K.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

-U.S. Official Tells Reuters, Citing Initial Indications

Russia Fired An Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile, Not An ICBM, At Ukraine On Thursday

Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine are once again roiling global energy markets, with rising prices raising concerns over the potential economic impact <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">on U.S. consumer bills.</a> 
On Thursday, Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from the Astrakhan region during an overnight strike on Dnipro, Ukraine, Reuters reported, citing the Ukrainian air force. 
As reported by Reuters, security experts said this marks the first use of an ICBM in a military conflict. The missiles are designed for nuclear warhead delivery. There is no indication the missile was nuclear-armed, Reuters said. 
Western officials disagree with Ukraine&#8217;s assessment, The New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/world/europe/russia-ballistic-missile-ukraine-war.html">said in a report</a>, and say the missile was likely of intermediate range. The Times said the officials spoke anonymously in order to discuss a private Western intelligence assessment. 
The Ukrainian air force said the missile was fired from over 435 miles away, targeting the central-eastern city of Dnipro. 
While the attack caused injuries to two people, the extent of the damage remains unclear. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the move, commenting on X: &#8220;Our insane neighbour has once again revealed its true nature.&#8221;
The move adds to escalating tensions, coming on the heels of Ukraine firing two Western-made missiles at Russia on Tuesday and Wednesday, after receiving approval from the White House <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/11/42064198/putin-revises-nuclear-doctrine-for-broader-strikes-after-us-backed-ukrainian-attack-markets-drop-bonds-gain">to target Russian territory.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Natural Gas Prices Spike, Eye Best Monthly Performance Since July 2022</h3>
In the wake of these heightened external geopolitical risks, U.S. natural gas prices surged. 
Futures tied to the Henry Hub benchmark – as tracked by the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNG#NYSE">UNG</a>) – jumped more than 6% on Thursday, reaching $3.40 per million British thermal units — the highest level since early November 2023.
The commodity is now up 50% for November, positioning itself for its strongest monthly rally since July 2022.
Natural gas demand in the U.S. has been driven by plummeting temperatures, intensifying the need for heating. 
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned on Thursday of the season&#8217;s first significant snowfall in the central and northern Appalachians, with heavy accumulation expected through Friday.
&#8220;Higher elevations will have the best chance of significant accumulations, however even the lower elevations of central and northern Pennsylvania and south central New York will likely see some accumulation of snow,&#8221; the NOAA wrote in a post on X.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is set to release weekly natural gas inventory change later Thursday.
Europe's natural gas market is grappling with fresh supply concerns as winter approaches after Austria&#8217;s OMV Group disclosed over the weekend that it will no longer receive volumes from its long-term contract with Russia's Gazprom.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">WTI Oil Prices Climb, Gold Eyes 4th Straight Positive Day</h3>
The ripple effects of escalating geopolitical tensions also extended to crude oil markets. 
West Texas Intermediate crude futures, tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), climbed 2.2% on Thursday morning, trading at $70 per barrel — the highest level since Nov. 11.
Gold continued to attract demand for safe-haven assets, with the precious metal rising 0.6% to $2,665 per ounce, eyeing the fourth straight session of gains. 
Bitcoin rose 3%, hitting a new peak of $98,367.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42097545/feds-bowman-warns-on-inflation-risks-signals-neutral-rate-may-be-closer">Fed&#8217;s Bowman Warns On Inflation, Says Neutral Interest Rates May Be Closer &#8216;Than We Currently Think&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>

On Wednesday, November 20, U.S. markets closed mixed. The Nasdaq slipped, weighed down by geopolitical tensions and Target&#8217;s disappointing performance. Nvidia declined ahead of earnings, which later underwhelmed. Meanwhile, the Dow edged higher, and the S&amp;P 500 remained flat.
In economic data, U.S. mortgage applications increased by 1.7% for the week ending November 15, up from the 0.5% rise recorded the previous week.
Healthcare, energy, and materials led S&amp;P 500 gains Wednesday, while consumer discretionary and financials declined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.32% and closed at 43,408.47, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.002% to 5,917.11, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.11% to finish at 18,966.14.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.97% and ended the session at 38,002.50, led by losses in the Insurance, Transportation Equipment, and Power sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 fell 0.04% and ended the day at 8,323.00, led by losses in the Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and A-REITs sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 declined 0.73% to 23,346.70, and Nifty 500 slid 0.85% closing at 21,816.45, led by losses in the Public Sector Undertakings, Oil &amp; Gas and Power sectors.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite gained 0.07% to close at 3,370.40, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.09%, finishing the day at 3,989.30.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng fell 0.53% and closed the session at 19,601.11.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.36%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX slid 0.02%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC declined 0.43%.</li>
<li>FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.20%</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 1.70% at $69.94/bbl, and Brent was up 1.58% at $73.95/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose amid escalating Russia-Ukraine missile strikes, overshadowing a larger-than-expected U.S. crude inventory increase.</li>
<li>Natural Gas rose 6.45% to $3.297.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.78% at $2,672.45, Silver was up 0.35% to $31.115, and Copper fell 0.83% to $4.1210.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures declined 0.07%, S&amp;P 500 futures were down 0.24% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.35%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index gained 0.04% to 106.72, the USD/JPY was down 0.64% to 154.44, and the USD/AUD slid 0.08% to 1.5357.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

- Reuters Citing YPF Source&nbsp;

ARGT

VIST

YPF Will Look For $1.5B In Foreign Financing And $500M In Local Financing In Q2 2025 For Vaca Muerta Sur Project; Wants To Add Shell, Chevron, Vista, Pampa Energy And Pan American Energy As Partners For Its Vaca Muerta Sur Project; Expects Total Investment Of $3B For Vaca Muerta Sur Oil Pipeline

USA EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks A Draw Of 0.114M Barrels Vs A Draw Of 1.394M Barrels Prior

USA Crude Oil Inventories A Build Of 0.545M Barrels Vs  A Build Of 2.089M Barrels Prior

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On Tuesday, November 19th, U.S. markets ended mixed. Nasdaq rose over 1%, and the S&amp;P 500 closed higher, driven by technology gains as Nvidia surged 4.9% ahead of earnings. Walmart climbed after raising forecasts. Losses eased after Moscow downplayed nuclear tensions. The Dow ended lower.
According to economic data, U.S. housing starts fell 3.1% to 1.311 million in October, down from 1.353 million in September, while building permits dropped 0.6% to an annual rate of 1.416 million.
The majority of S&amp;P 500 sectors rose, led by energy, communication services, and consumer discretionary, while industrials lagged and closed lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.28% and closed at 43,268.94, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.40% to 5,917.00, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.04% to finish at 18,987.47.
Asia Markets Today
On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 declined 0.08% and ended the session at 38,373.50, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Gas &amp; Water, and Transport sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 fell 0.57% and ended the day at 8,326.30, led by losses in the Telecoms Services, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors.
India Markets closed for Assembly Elections in Maharashtra state.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite gained 0.66% to close at 3,367.99, and the Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.22%, finishing the day at 3,985.77.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng gained 0.21% and closed the session at 19,705.01.
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.47%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX rose 0.47%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC gained 0.34%.</li>
<li>FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.22%</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.38% at $69.47/bbl, and Brent was up 0.26% at $73.51/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas rose 2.00% to $3.058.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.14% at $2,627.60, Silver fell 0.98% to $30.957, and Copper rose 0.31% to $4.1550.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures gained 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 futures were up 0.06% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.01%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index gained 0.40% to 106.63, the USD/JPY rose 0.74% to 155.80, and the USD/AUD rose 0.40% to 1.5370.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar rebounded from a one-week low as safety-haven demand eased, while the yen fell to a three-month low, raising speculation about BOJ intervention.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

API Weekly Crude Stock 4.753M Barrel Build vs 800K Build Est.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-19_07h56_39.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">New Russian Nuclear Doctrine</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-russian-nuclear-doctrine-walmart-breakout-wmt-mc-11192024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Walmart Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WMT#NYSE">WMT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of WMT is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp; Walmart is the largest retailer in the U.S.&nbsp; For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to Walmart's earnings.</li>
<li>The chart shows WMT stock gapped up after earnings.</li>
<li>The chart shows that WMT stock also gapped up on earnings in the prior two quarters.</li>
<li>Walmart reported earnings better than the whisper numbers.&nbsp; Stocks move based on the difference between reported numbers and whisper numbers.&nbsp; Whisper numbers are the number analysts privately share with their best clients.&nbsp; Whisper numbers are different from the numbers the same analysts publish for public consumption.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the following are the most important points from Walmart earnings:
<ul>
<li>Higher end consumers continue to shift to Walmart.</li>
<li>E-commerce at Walmart, especially quick delivery, is growing rapidly.</li>
<li>Margins are expanding.</li>
<li>Walmart is gaining market share.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, as good as Walmart is doing, investors need to be mindful of the very high valuation for a retailer.&nbsp; Walmart is trading at a trailing PE of 43.&nbsp; However, as Walmart's earnings are growing, forward PE is 30, which is still expensive for a retailer.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Walmart is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio from an average price of $19.25.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Prudent investors also watch earnings from home improvement retailer Lowe&#8217;s Companies Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LOW#NYSE">LOW</a>).&nbsp; Lowe's earnings are a reflection of the consumer, especially remodeling of existing homes.&nbsp; Lowe's earnings are slightly below whisper numbers. &nbsp; As full disclosure, LOW is also in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio and is long from an average of $81.85.</li>
<li>In the early trade, markets are responding to the new Russian doctrine.
<ul>
<li>Stocks are being sold.</li>
<li>Gold and silver are being bought.</li>
<li>Oil is being bought.</li>
<li>The dollar is being bought.</li>
<li>The yen is being bought.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The new Russian doctrine brings the world closer to World War III.&nbsp; The new doctrine is in response to the U.S. allowing Ukraine to fire U.S. manufactured long range missiles on targets inside Russia.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should note the following three elements of the new Russian doctrine.
<ul>
<li>An attack on Russia by any country supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on Russia.</li>
<li>A massive aerial attack could trigger a nuclear response from Russia.&nbsp;</li>
<li>In reference to NATO, an aggression by a member of the coalition will be viewed as aggression by the entire bloc.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the new Russian doctrine is squarely directed at the U.S.&nbsp; The purpose appears to be to persuade Trump to stop supporting Ukraine and force Ukraine to cede territory in Eastern Ukraine to Russia.&nbsp; Further, in The Arora Report analysis, the ultimate solution is likely going to be the U.S. forcing Ukraine to give Eastern Ukraine to Russia as per Russian wishes.&nbsp; This has been a long standing Arora call.</li>
<li>For the first time ever, Ukraine has attacked a warehouse inside Russia using long range missiles manufactured by the U.S. &nbsp; The missile attack was conducted with Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).&nbsp; The missiles are manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>), a major U.S. defense contractor.&nbsp; The targeted warehouse housed ammunition and missiles from North Korea.&nbsp; North Korea is promising 100K troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine.</li>
<li>There is no change in the protection band at this time, but we are keeping a close eye on the situation.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Housing</h3>
New housing is beginning to weaken.&nbsp; Here is the just released data:
<ul>
<li>Housing starts came at 1.311M vs. 1.34M consensus.</li>
<li>Building permits came at 1.416M vs. 1.441M consensus.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Credit Suisse AG - Credit Suisse X-Links Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN

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Benzinga Market Summary: S&P Drops And Oil Rises Amid Russia-Ukraine Escalation Concerns, Walmart Stock Gains On Strong Earnings And Guidance

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-11-19/g-20-summit-in-rio-de-janeiro-nov-19?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;cursorId=673C9D5FB21C0000&amp;embedded-checkout=true" title="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-11-19/g-20-summit-in-rio-de-janeiro-nov-19?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;cursorId=673C9D5FB21C0000&amp;embedded-checkout=true">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-11-19/g-20-summit-in-rio-de-janeiro-nov-19?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;cursorId=673C9D5FB21C0000&amp;embedded-checkout=true</a>

U.S. Indicates It Won't Respond To Russian Nuclear Doctrine Move

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EIA natural gas storage change for week ending November 15

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Oil prices were up nearly 2% on Wednesday as Russia and Ukraine traded blows amid rising tensions.

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J.P. Morgan forecasts lower oil prices in Trump's upcoming term

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the activity in the Financial Markets after the day that just ended, Friday, November 22.

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