Trade Concerns Continue To Push Stock Market Lower

It may be a new week, but the same uncertainties that led to a 4% plunge culminating in Friday’s 500-point decline haven’t necessarily gone away. The market is still licking its wounds, and concerns about the next chapter in the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, and possible slowing economic growth all could continue to weigh on sentiment as the year winds down.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) fell more than 500 points Friday to erase its 2018 gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) ended the old week at 2633, exactly one point above the closing low on Nov. 23. While some traders could view the close as a positive sign from a technical perspective, it probably came as little consolation for bulls on a day when the index was down more than 2% and in a week that was the worst since March for the major indices.

More bearish news came over the weekend when China reported November export data that fell short of expectations and could potentially raise concerns about demand from global importers. Exports to the European Union, South Korea and the U.S. from China all rose less than expected, with exports to the U.S. up 9.8% in November from a year ago but down from 13.2% in October. Import growth of 3% was the slowest in two years. Asian stocks were down early Monday.

In Europe, concerns about a possible delay in the U.K. parliament’s vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan are front and center this week. According to media reports, May’s plan is under attack from all sides of the political spectrum, and if it fails, the U.K. might have to re-enter negotiations with the European Union. The pound fell Monday to 19-month lows vs. the dollar.

Still, pre-market trading saw U.S. indices turn positive, maybe a sign that some investors think the market might have gotten oversold last week. We’ll see if the early green numbers can possibly stay that way. Key technical support appears to be near the 2600 level for the SPX, which is down around the late October intraday low.

Tectonic Shift Underway as “Buy the Dip” No Longer Working

Last week’s plunge and continued volatility could serve as reminders of the tectonic shift we’re seeing in stock market and fixed income valuations, but even the bears might have gotten surprised by the extent of the Friday selloff.

Positive Catalysts on Horizon?

For things to get brighter, it would likely take some sort of positive news from either U.S. trade negotiations with China, the ongoing Brexit saga, or some of the inflation data coming tomorrow and Wednesday. The November producer price index (PPI) early Tuesday and the consumer price index (CPI) early Wednesday could be the next pieces in the puzzle helping investors get a sense of where the Fed might decide to go with rates in 2019.

Aside from inflation data, another highlight this week is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony Wednesday. This follows last week’s Wall Street Journal report that the Fed might be ready to signal some sort of pause in rate hikes following what’s widely expected to be the fourth hike of the year later this month.

December Rate Hike Still Seems Likely

After December, the next step is a little less clear. Odds of a March hike now stand at 25%, according to futures, down from above 50% a few weeks ago.

Hopes Continue Rising For Fed Pause Amid Dovish Signals

Despite the arguably positive nature of Friday’s jobs report when looked at from a point of view focusing on inflation, the headline number did show weaker-than-expected jobs growth. So it may be that some market participants were focusing on that side of the coin and adding pressure to the market already worried worries about ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China.

Trade Worries Weigh

On the trade front, there were comments Friday by White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on the potential for raised tariffs if a trade agreement isn’t reached during the three-month truce. Even so, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told CNBC that the trade talks are “extremely promising.”

Last week, market optimism about a truce announced following a meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart at the G-20 summit quickly waned after an executive with Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies was arrested in Canada and faced extradition to the United States.

That raised concerns over the world’s two largest economies striking a longer-term deal that could end a trade dispute that has been hanging over Wall Street for much of this year and sparked worries about global economic growth.

Brexit, Italian Woes Add To Pressure

In addition to watching the headlines for developments on the trade front, investors may also be paying attention to the upcoming United Kingdom vote on a proposed plan to leave the European Union. Meanwhile, contentious budget negotiations between the European Union and the Italian government continue.

Shares of information technology and consumer discretionary companies took the biggest hits. For tech, that’s probably reflective of the sector’s strong links to China. For consumer discretionary stocks, there still may be some lingering worry about an economic slowdown after portions of the Treasury yield curve inverted this week.

Information from TDA is not intended to be investment advice or construed as a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment or investment strategy, and is for illustrative purposes only. Be sure to understand all risks involved with each strategy, including commission costs, before attempting to place any trade.

Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs

To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.