Analysis: Is Biden's Claim That EVs Will Erase 'Worry About Gas Prices' Correct?

On May 10, the Twitter TWTR account for the White House offered a message on how American drivers can do their part to answer the economic challenges created by the new sanctions on oil imports from Russia.

“When we have electric cars powered by clean energy, we will never have to worry about gas prices again,” the White House tweet said. “And autocrats like Putin won’t be able to use fossil fuels as weapons against other nations.”

This was not a new talking point for the Biden administration – back in November, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg remarked during an interview that households who buy electric vehicles "never have to worry about gas prices again." And last May, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm responded to the news of regional fuel shortages after the cyberattack on the Colonial Pipeline by quipping, “If you drive an electric car, this would not be affecting you, clearly.”

However, is the White House on target when it claims people will never worry about gas prices again if everyone switches to EVs?

In Support: Mark Geller, vice chairman of the Electric Vehicle Association, endorsed the Biden administration’s argument.

“I would say this statement from the White House is perfectly on target,” said Geller. “Our organization has essentially believed this for 50 years, and it's nice to have more people subscribing to the notion that clean, renewable energy put into vehicles that perform better than gasoline cars, is a win for everyone. And if we don't have to buy fossil fuel from other countries – Putin or Saudi Arabia – it is a super win for the United States because our money for the energy to power our cars then stays in country. It is a super patriotic thing to do and a super environmentally beneficial thing to do.”

Geller was not concerned that comments made by Buttigieg and Granholm could be seen as insensitive to Americans who drive gas-fueled vehicles.

“No one's trying to poke anyone in the eye,” he said, adding that EV advocacy should not be seen as a partisan cudgel.

“I'm not a politician and my organization isn't doing politics,” he continued. “We're trying to save people money, give them a better ride and a healthy environment. What's important is to help folks understand that they would be better off in the pocketbook, and they would have a much more fun ride, if they drove an electric car. I want everyone to understand the benefits that await them in an electric car.”

Alexander Agrios, a civil and environmental engineer and an associate professor at the University of Connecticut, shared that sentiment.

“Well, it's certainly true that if we run our cars from electricity, then we don't have to worry because we’re cutting oil out of the issue for cars,” he said, adding that generating the electricity to power these vehicles does not involve oil. “It's mostly domestic natural gas, domestic nuclear power and more and more renewables. So, we really pretty well take petroleum out of the equation for power and cars.”

Paul Jensen, partner and owner in the EV consultancy Green Ways 2Go, believed the White House statement “is slightly an oversimplification, because you can't change from one day to another the fuel profile of the country. But it is definitely the right time to make an effort to make this happen.”

Jensen observed that rather than create a division between traditional and EV choices, “it would be good to maybe collaborate with the oil and gas industry and see how they can reallocate their energy portfolios away from fossil fuels and more into the direction of renewable energy. And some of them are taking initiatives to that degree.”

Jensen also noted that electric and fossil fuel power is being successfully combined by the trucking industry for its vehicles.

“The constant velocity diesel generation, combined with batteries in the trucks, is a possibility because when you run diesel engines on a constant speed for a dedicated purpose, you can get a much cleaner combustion portfolio than compared to a direct engine connected to the wheels.”

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On The Other Hand: However, some energy industry thought leaders were more cautious of the White House’s prediction that oil imports would become unnecessary if everyone drove an EV.

“I think it is a simple overstatement, because when people think of oil they think of gasoline, and that is certainly a primary product from the refinery of crude oil,” said Jack Kerfoot, principal of JL Kerfoot Energy Services and a board member of the environmental nonprofit Engineers for a Sustainable Future. “But so is diesel. So are petrochemicals that are used in anything from fabrics to plastics to even medicines – a large percentage of medicines – and most of the shoes and shoe components now have components of hydrocarbons in them, as well.”

“It would be almost impossible for you to live your entire day and not come in frequent contact with a hydrocarbon type of product,” he added. “If we talk about simply gasoline, if we take out the demand for the gasoline aspect of it, then that will cause supply to drop back down.”

Frank Dalene, president and CEO of Telemark Inc., a construction service firm focused on energy efficiencies, and author of the “Decarbonize the World: A Market-Based Solution to the Climate Crisis,” was even more skeptical over the notion that this strategy can be achieved with immediacy.

“Pushing electric vehicles on the American consumers prior to transitioning the electric grid to renewable energy or the owner of the EV having installed solar panels on their homes, just for the sake of selling EVs, is counterproductive since charging EVs on a fossil fuel grid emits more carbon emissions that the same gas-powered car,” he said.

“I did the math comparing a Nissan Leaf and a Versa charged on the Long Island grid. When I reported my results, it sounded counterintuitive because the EV industry markets their vehicles as “zero tail pipe emissions,” which is a half-truth since we need to take into consideration the carbon emissions generated from fossil fuel electric power plants, since the production of electricity from fossil fuels is only 33% efficient. The auto industry has made significant advances in reducing emissions from gas vehicles, while the net result is charging EV on the Long Island grid emits more greenhouse gases than driving the equivalent gas-powered vehicle on gasoline.”

While Dalene praised Tesla TSLA and other manufacturers of “doing a great job of building out the charging station infrastructure, there’s still a lot of work to do, especially in rural America. It will be a mistake to jump the gun by increasing the production of EVs.”

"The transition away from fossil fuels must be done slowly, orderly and in the proper sequence, otherwise we will have the cart before the horse," he added.

But far less sanguine was Dr. Peter Morici, professor emeritus of the Robert H. Smith Business School at the University of Maryland and former director of the Office of Economics at the U.S. International Trade Commission, who dismissed the White House advocacy as "silly" and stated the Biden administration misunderstands the state of the U.S. automotive environment.

"The average life of a car is 15 years," Morici said. "There's going to be a good long time before even half of the fleet is electric."

Morici expressed doubt that pushing EVs will distract the American public from the rapidly increasing prices at their local service stations.

"Gas prices are going to affect families this year, next year, and for as long as Joe Biden might be president," he continued. "He's cut off the development of domestic oil and gas before the electric vehicles are ready, and now he is giving alibis about the problem. Last month's inflation numbers were before the war, and you ain't seen nothing yet."

Photo: Courtesy of rulenumberone2 on Flickr