Kevin McCarthy Still Not Secure In House Speaker Position As Congress Vote Moves Forward: What Can This Mean For Biden's Agenda?

A GOP-dominated House of Representatives is swearing in on Tuesday and taking a vote to decide the new House Speaker.

What Happened: Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Leader since 2019, is the most likely candidate for the role, but last-minute reports showed the California Republican scrambling for votes as the deadline looms.

McCarthy faced opposition from the most conservative bloc of the Republican Party to replace current House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for the 118th Congress. 

To get elected, McCarthy needs a majority of 218 votes out of the 434 house seats. With a very narrow Republican majority of 222 versus 213, McCarthy could be left out of the position if only four Republicans were to vote against him.

This outcome would lead to the first time further voting was needed to settle a House Speaker in more than 100 years.

Why It Matters: Internal divisions within the Republican party are becoming more apparent.

According to NPR, at least 12 Republican house members are demanding McCarthy provide certain concessions for their vote, which include “new rules on how legislation is considered in the House, and how oversight investigations of the Biden administration will be structured.”

Insider reports don’t agree on the most likely outcome.

Punchbowl reporter Max Cohen tweeted that Congressman Steve Scalise (R-La.) said, “Today Republicans will elect McCarthy to be the next speaker,” but he didn’t answer when asked if he would step in if McCarthy doesn’t have enough votes.

PBS’s Lisa Desjardins reported inside the Republican Party’s last-minute conference that Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ind.) said “anyone who votes against McCarthy is off their committees.”

McCarthy said to Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman he plans to “unite the team,” which is a metaphor for reaching a consensus with the far-right House Freedom Caucus.

Whoever wins the position will have to negotiate with a Democrat-run Senate and the Biden administration on key “must-pass” issues.

A Republican-run House is bound to make muddy terrain for Biden’s 2023 agenda, which includes deciding how to fund the government, dealing with U.S-China relations and supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia.

The relationship between Biden and the House Speaker will be key in this respect.

After newly elected congressional leaders listened to Biden’s speech during the November 2022 elections, McCarthy told reporters he “can work with anybody,” but warned Biden that the situation is “going to be different” once Republicans take back control of the House.

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Photo: Shirley Preston via Shutterstock