Congress In Chaos: House Is Set For Speaker Vote Tuesday, But GOP Candidate Jim Jordan Has A Long Way To Go

The House of Representatives is counting its 13th day without a leader after the ouster of U.S. Rep. Kevin McCarthy from the speakership position.

McCarthy was removed from his role Oct. 3 in a vote in which the Democrats, together with eight hard-right Republicans, decided to remove a House speaker for the first time in U.S. history.

In the meantime, the House is frozen, unable to act. The situation has caused several urgent bills to become untouched, including a proposal by President Joe Biden to send aid to Israel to assist in its conflict with Hamas, as well as a new measure needed to avoid a looming government shutdown, which is approaching in one month.

Government Shutdown Stopgap Expires In 1 Month: The vote earlier this month left the Speaker chair vacant and the House in mayhem. The historic event proved a testament to the growing difficulties gnawing away at the GOP, whose increasingly bitter internal disputes are grinding Washington, D.C. to a halt.

It remains to be seen which political figure will have the power to unite the GOP-led House and harness the necessary votes to win the speakership.

McCarthy's run as speaker was short-lived and tumultuous. Throughout his tenure, McCarthy negotiated a high-stakes bill to raise the debt ceiling, avoiding a default. Just last month, Congress approved a stopgap bill aimed at preventing a full government shutdown.

Yet the continuous resolution that allowed the government to continue to operate only lasts until Nov. 17, one month from now. If the House can't agree on a speaker in time, the government risks facing new shutdown risks.

A House Divided: Within McCarthy's turbulent ride through the speakership position, one event stands out: his tortuous election for the role. It took 15 voting sessions to get McCarthy elected in January. He won the vote by 216 votes against New York Democrat Hakeem Jeffries, who received 212 votes.

McCarthy achieved the position after giving major concessions to hard-right Republicans who had been holding out on the vote.

Nine months later, the House appears even more divided. The House reconvenes on Monday and is expected to hold a vote for speaker at noon Tuesday.

So far, only one candidate has been put forward by the GOP: U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan, from Ohio.

Jordan is one of the co-founders of the conservative Freedom Caucus, and a friend and ally to former President Donald Trump. Jordan won a secretly held internal vote, by which the GOP voted 124 to 81 to put him ahead of Georgia's Austin Scott.

Scott, a more moderate Republican who sides with McCarthy, decided to run against Jordan in an effort to avoid ceding control of the House to far-right Republicans.

An internal poll conducted by House Republicans on Friday revealed that only 152 of them would vote for Jordan on a floor vote, while 55 would oppose him, according to The New York Times. Jordan needs 217 votes to win the speakership if the House has full attendance.

All 212 House Democrats are expected to vote again for Jeffries. That leaves a big gap to fill for Jordan to win the speakership in a narrowly controlled House.

Jeffries said he would consider a coalition with Republicans who don't want Jordan on the role only if there's a change in House rules, allowing for both parties to choose what legislation is put up to vote. In the current scheme, Republicans have full control over which bills get a vote.

On Sunday, he told NBC "there are informal conversations that have been underway. When we get back to Washington tomorrow, it's important to begin to formalize those discussions."

Concurrently, allies of Jordan spent the weekend campaigning for him on social media, in an effort to flip the necessary representatives needed to put him in the speaker seat.

A recurring argument they used says that those Republicans who oppose Jordan are standing in the way of allowing the House to return to action.

Over the weekend, McCarthy blamed the hard-right Republicans who voted against him for being the ones who caused the turmoil and blocked the House.

"How do you allow 4% of the conference to do this to the entire country?" he said to reporters.

Stocks To Watch: Further turmoil in Congress could have a negative effect on high-risk stocks. Investors often shy away from risk during times of instability in favor of safer options like government bonds or defensive stocks from consumer staple companies followed by Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund XLP or Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF VDC.

ETFs based on growth and innovation, normally used to follow aggressive stocks, could have a thesis against them in a deadlocked Congress situation. The innovation ETF Invesco QQQ Trust Series I QQQ, following the Nasdaq-100 index is among this group, along with the Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF VUG.

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