Zinger Key Points
- Polymarkets predicts Trump will speak more, with a 67% chance, while Harris holds a 33% chance of more airtime.
- Betting markets imply a 34% chance that over 75 million people will watch, though it’s unlikely to surpass 2016’s record.
The first—and possibly only—debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is set to take place on Tuesday at 9:00 p.m. ET, hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia.
With the Nov. 5 election just weeks away, this face-to-face encounter could prove decisive in shaping the trajectory of the race. Polls show an extremely tight contest, and the debate's outcome may tilt voter sentiment in crucial ways.
This debate, which is the first face-to-face meeting and possibly only direct encounter between the two candidates before the election, is expected to significantly influence the election’s trajectory.
Current Polls: A Tight Race
Recent polling reflects a neck-and-neck race between the two candidates. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump holds a slight edge at 48% compared to Harris’ 47%.
Conversely, FiveThirtyEight’s poll gives Harris a narrow lead at 47.1% to Trump's 44.3%. Similarly, RealClearPolitics gives the current vice president a 1.1 percentage point lead over the former president.
Other polls, including those from YouGov and Emerson College, further underscore the narrow margin between the two candidates, making this debate an even more pivotal event.
Polymarket Predictions: Trump Expected To Speak More
On the prediction markets, data from Polymarkets reveals that bettors expect Trump to dominate the speaking time during the debate, with 67% odds that he will speak more than Harris. By contrast, Harris holds just a 33% chance of having more airtime.
For every dollar wagered on Trump speaking more than Harris, bettors would receive $1.44 in total if that outcome occurs, yielding a 44-cent net profit.
One interesting prediction surrounds whether the candidates will shake hands during their first in-person encounter. Speculators assign just a 27% chance of a handshake, with a 74% chance that the two will forego this traditional gesture.
In June, President Joe Biden and Trump broke with tradition by not shaking hands at the start of their debate.
Key Topics To Watch
What the candidates say during the debate will be closely scrutinized. Data from Polymarkets shows that Harris’ top talking points are projected to focus on abortion (88% chance), inflation (85% chance), and Project 2025 (84% chance).
Harris is also expected to emphasize themes related to democracy, with 82% odds that she will address the state of American democracy and the dangers she believes Trump poses to it.
Other likely topics include the border (mentioned five or more times, with 68% odds) and calling Trump a convicted felon (59% chance).
What Will Kamala Harris Say During The Debate?
| Word | Probability |
|---|---|
| Abortion | 88% |
| Inflation | 85% |
| Project 2025 | 84% |
| Democracy | 82% |
| Border 5+ times | 68% |
| Not Going Back | 66% |
| Palestine/Palestinian | 64% |
| Convicted Felon | 59% |
| Wall | 52% |
| Liar | 37% |
| JD Vance | 35% |
| Artificial Intelligence | 33% |
| I’m speaking | 23% |
| Unrealized | 23% |
| Weird | 21% |
| McDonald’s | 12% |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | 12% |
| DEI | 7% |
On Trump's side, his talking points will likely include Israel (a 93% chance), China (mentioned three or more times, with 90% chance), and abortion (82% chance).
Trump's campaign has also positioned him as tough on immigration, so there's a 60% chance he will mention the border at least 15 times.
He is also projected to take jabs at Harris by referring to her as "Comrade Kamala" (46% chance) and calling the media “Fake News” (61% chance).
| Word | Probability |
|---|---|
| Israel | 93% |
| China 3+ times | 90% |
| Abortion | 82% |
| Border Czar | 75% |
| Marxist | 63% |
| Fake News | 61% |
| Border 15+ times | 60% |
| Fraud | 53% |
| Comrade Kamala | 46% |
| Elon Musk | 32% |
| Drill Baby Drill | 32% |
| MAGA 3+ times | 30% |
| Haitian | 29% |
| Tampon | 23% |
| Springfield | 22% |
| Alien 5+ times | 20% |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | 17% |
| McDonald’s | 16% |
| Epstein | 5% |
Bettors Expect More Than 75 Million Viewers
There is only a 1% chance that fewer than 50 million people will tune in, while a slightly higher 3% chance exists for viewership between 50 and 55 million.
Most predictions suggest higher audience numbers, with an 18% chance of the debate drawing 55-60 million viewers and a 12% likelihood of reaching 60-65 million. The chances continue to rise for larger audiences, with a 17% probability of 65-70 million viewers and a 25% chance of 70-75 million people watching the event.
The highest probability, at 34%, suggests that more than 75 million people will tune in.
The 2016 debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton remains the most-watched presidential debate in history, drawing in 84,011,000 viewers. Betting markets now imply an 85% chance that Tuesday's Trump-Harris debate will fall short of surpassing this record-breaking viewership.
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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