Goldman Sachs Delays $3,000 Gold Forecast, Sees Fewer Rate Cuts In 2025

Goldman Sachs has postponed its projection for gold prices to hit $3,000 per ounce, shifting the timeline from early 2026 to mid-2026. The investment bank adjusted its expectations from the Federal Reserve, as tighter-than-expected monetary policy would influence gold prices.

Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven forecast gold to reach $2,910 per ounce by the end of the year. The bank's economists now anticipate 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, down from the previously expected 100 basis points.

"Opposing forces — lower speculative demand and structurally higher central bank buying — have effectively offset each other, keeping gold prices range-bound over the past few months," they said in a note per Bloomberg's report, attributing the long-term demand to central banks buying appetite.

"Looking ahead, we forecast monthly purchases to average 38 tons through mid-2026," they stated.

Gold delivered a robust performance in 2024, gaining 27% due to monetary easing, central bank purchases, and lingering inflation fears. However, the rally lost momentum in late 2024 as the U.S. dollar strengthened following the election-driven optimism.

Still, the U.S. is finding other ways to take advantage of higher-for-longer gold prices. President Joe Biden just approved the final permit for the Stibnite Project in Idaho, a mining initiative led by Perpetua Resources PPTA and backed by billionaire investor John Paulson.

This project could supply more than 35% of the U.S. demand for antimony, a critical mineral essential for solar panels, flame retardants and military equipment, while also producing around 450,000 ounces of gold annually.

Although the project cost around $1.3 billion in 2020, the final number will be higher. Accounted reserves include 148 million pounds of antimony and 6 million ounces of gold, and production is set for 2028.

Antimony prices surged in 2024, rising over 200% and over 40% in a single day after China issued an export ban on December 3. However, extreme price volatility and control over the market (China accounted for 48% of global production and 63% of U.S. imports in 2023) are risky for producers.

Thus, the dual output of gold and antimony offers financial resilience, reducing dependence and insulating the project from external price fluctuations. 

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