With Donald Trump‘s swearing-in as the 47th president rapidly approaching, betting markets are in overdrive, pricing in a flurry of executive actions.

Traders on the CFTC-regulated platform Kalshi see an 80% chance Trump will sign at least 15 executive orders on his first day, with the most aggressive wagers banking on 50 or more — offering a 28% implied probability.

From a potential flood of executive orders to new tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and even Bitcoin policy shifts, the first days of the Trump administration could be some of the most consequential in recent history.

How Many Executive Orders On Trump Day 1?

The Kalshi platform, which allows traders to bet on political and economic outcomes, indicates Trump will sign an average of 38 executive orders on Inauguration Day.

For comparison, President Joe Biden issued 17 orders on his first day in 2021, while Trump signed 14 in 2017 during his first term. The most aggressive bet — on 50 or more orders — carries a 28% probability by Friday 3:10 p.m. ET, meaning a $1 wager could return $3 if Trump surpasses that threshold.

Will Trump Lower Corporate And High-Earner Taxes?

Betting markets assign a 55% probability that Trump will cut corporate taxes this year, signaling a potential reversal of Biden-era policies.

Meanwhile, there’s an 89% chance that he will extend tax cuts for high earners, a key priority for his administration. Trump’s 2017 tax reform significantly reduced corporate tax rates from 35% to 21%.

Immigration Crackdown: A Near Certainty

One of the most heavily priced-in actions is Trump’s potential move on illegal immigration.

Betting markets assign a 94% probability that he will take action on deportations within his first 100 days.

This aligns with his campaign rhetoric, where he vowed to reinstate and expand the “Remain in Mexico” policy, increase deportations, and impose tougher border controls.

Tariffs: Who's In The Crosshairs?

Markets are also weighing in on which countries Trump may hit with tariffs in his first 48 hours.

• China: 46% chance of new tariffs
• Mexico: 46% chance
• Canada: 35% chance
• European Union: 10% chance

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Trump has already promised to slap a 10% universal tariff on all imports and potentially much steeper duties on Chinese goods.

Declaring A National Emergency: 80% Probability

Another major bet is whether Trump will declare a national emergency within his first 100 days — a scenario with an 80% probability.

While the specific trigger remains unclear, possibilities include immigration, trade or domestic unrest.

His 2019 national emergency declaration to fund the border wall set a precedent, making this a key market-moving event to watch.

Bitcoin Reserve: A Surprising 66% Chance

A more unconventional wager is whether Trump will establish a National Bitcoin BTC/USD Reserve this year, a market with a 66% implied probability.

While Trump was previously skeptical of cryptocurrencies, he recently shifted his stance, touting himself as a crypto-friendly candidate.

If he moves forward with such a reserve, it could mark a seismic shift in U.S. financial policy.

Birthright Citizenship: A 69% Likelihood of Action

Markets are also pricing in a 69% chance that Trump will attempt to end birthright citizenship within his first 100 days.

This would likely face immediate legal challenges as the 14th Amendment guarantees citizenship to anyone born in the U.S. Nonetheless, it remains a high-priority issue for his administration and traders are betting on early executive action.

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