Zinger Key Points
- Rising interest rates favor Value stocks as Treasury yields become more competitive with equities, says WisdomTree's Weniger.
- Tariff risk is already priced in, while housing inflation remains a persistent concern for investors, he says.
With ultra-low interest rates firmly in the rearview mirror, Jeff Weniger, Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree, has a clear message for investors: “Anything in the high-4s on a 10-year Treasury rate puts the S&P 500's earnings yield at a level where it either barely exceeds or does not exceed the risk-free yield.”
In other words, it’s time to rethink the Growth vs. Value debate.
In an exclusive interview with Benzinga, Weniger said that investors in the "higher for longer" camp should focus on Value stocks. ETFs such as the Vanguard Value ETF VTV, the SPDR Select Sector Fund – Energy XLE, the Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF VBR and the iShares Select Dividend ETF DVY provide exposure to value equity in the U.S.
As rates rise, the yields on Treasury bonds become more competitive with stock market earnings, making growth stocks, which have long outperformed, much less attractive. In such a scenario, investors in growth-focused ETFs such as the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 QQQ and the Vanguard Growth ETF VUG should remain wary of their holdings.
"In that scenario, which is a live one, investors need to reassess the more speculative portions of their portfolio," he said.
Tariff Tension & Its Surprising Impact
While tariffs continue to be a topic of concern, Weniger suggests that much of this risk is already baked into the market. “Tariff risk is one of the most priced-in risks we have seen for some time,” he explained.
Reshoring efforts, which began during the pandemic, are unlikely to be significantly affected by new tariffs. So, if you’re expecting a major tariff shock to upend the market, Weniger believes the impact may be much smaller than anticipated.
Inflation's Hidden Risks: Housing Edition
Beyond energy prices, Weniger identifies a potentially overlooked inflation risk: housing. “The market needs to contend with the very real arithmetic of Owners Equivalent Rent in the CPI calculation,” he said.
Even if home prices stagnate or fall, the inflated housing costs will continue to push the CPI higher.
Navigating Market Sentiment
With macro uncertainties looming, Weniger advises investors to manage their risk carefully. “Sentiment is arguably bubbly in certain pockets of U.S. markets and downright moribund in others,” he adds, suggesting that international stocks might be a safer bet while scaling back exposure to U.S. equities in the current volatile climate.
The Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF VEA, the iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF IEFA and the WisdomTree International Hedged Quality Dividend Growth Fund IHDG provide exposure to international equity.
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