Bettors on the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket anticipated a higher chance that President Donald Trump will remove tariffs on Canada before the summer, after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that relief was possible.
What happened: The odds in favor of a betting contract titled "Will Trump remove tariffs on Canada before May?" surged from 30% to 52% in the last 24 hours on the Polygon POL/USD-based platform.
The market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that removes the 25% tariff on Canada by Apr. 30, the contract stated.
Note that Polymarket is not available to U.S. residents due to regulatory hurdles.
A similar wager on the federally regulated betting platform Kalshi predicted a 75% chance of the current tariffs ending or getting reduced before Mar. 6.
See Also: Whale Leveraged 50x Short Sees $81 Million In Paper Gains As Ethereum Plummets After Trump’s Tariff Confirmation
Why It Matters: The dramatic surge came after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. In response, Trump warned of increased tariffs equal to Canada’s retaliatory measures.
However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s statements helped ease tensions somewhat when he assured that a middle ground would be found, adding that Trump is very "fair" and "reasonable" on the subject.
The fears of a full-blown trade war have sent risk-on markets like equities and cryptocurrencies tumbling in recent weeks.
The S&P 500 has lost 4.30% in the last month, while the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin BTC/USD, fell over 7%.
Photo Courtesy: Shutterstock.com
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