As Federal Reserve officials gather Tuesday and Wednesday to calibrate rates, JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka is warning investors not to count on Wall Street as a recession shelter.
What Happened: Matejka stated in a note shared with CNBC that the S&P 500 trades at 21 times forward earnings on expectations of 10% profit growth this year and 14% next, levels he called far from "pricing in any meaningful recession fears." He added that if risk sentiment sours, "Tech and USD might not be the ‘safe' havens" they were in prior downturns.
The caution comes as recession odds climb. A new CNBC Fed Survey pegs the probability at 53%, up from 22% in January, even as the labor market shows resilience. Survey respondents expect the Fed to cut rates once growth falters, even if inflation stays sticky.
Macro clouds are thickening. Supply‑chain trackers report a sharp drop in U.S. imports and exports, and the Conference Board's consumer expectations gauge just hit its lowest reading since 2011.
See also: Will Powell Defy Trump Again? Here’s What The Fed Chair Might Say On Wednesday
Valuation math is hardly foolproof, cautions Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab, who says earnings uncertainty makes pricing "tricky for the time being." Still, Gordon warned CNBC that prolonged tariff disputes could let weakness "take on a life of its own" — damage a future trade deal cannot quickly undo.
Why It Matters: While fears of the U.S. economy entering recession persist, Billionaire macro trader Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC he believes the U.S. has likely slipped into a recession — or soon will — and warned that equity markets could set fresh lows before year‑end. He conceded he has issued similar bear calls in past cycles that never materialized.
Jones also forecast that President Donald Trump will dial back average China tariffs to roughly 40‑50% from today's 125%, but said any relief would be offset by a Federal Reserve that keeps interest rates elevated, a combination he views as toxic for stocks.
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