Nickel Industry Cutbacks To Support Prices As Miners Brace For Long Slump: '2030s Will Likely Be More Attractive'

Lower production among the world's largest nickel miners in response to a price slump for the metal end up supporting the market.

That’s according to Russian metals giant Nornickel. London Metal Exchange nickel prices are down around 30% in the year through Friday, primarily driven by burgeoning supply from Indonesia — the world's largest producer of the metal.

Nickel — used in steel making and electric vehicle (EV) batteries — is in oversupply. That coincides with weak demand from the European, Chinese and U.S. stainless steel industries plus a tempered outlook for EV sales growth.

Inflationary pressures also raised miners' cost of extracting nickel, helping to prompt a production cutback to save money.

"The price has not yet reacted to the potential supply risks, but any further supply curtailments could impact the primary nickel supply materially, which would likely support the LME (London Metal Exchange) quotes in the near term," Nornickel said in an outlook this month. The company, which is the world's biggest producer of refined nickel, seemed slightly more positive than other major nickel producers.

Nickel producer BHP Group Ltd. BHP expects supply and demand in the nickel industry not to rebalance until the late 2020s.

The company recorded a $2.5 billion impairment charge at nickel operations in Western Australia and said it is considering putting one of the assets on care and maintenance and is assessing spending on development of another asset there. 

"We expect this oversupply is going to persist for some time, which we've called end of this decade, whereas the 2030s are likely to be more attractive," BHP CEO Mike Henry said in a conference call Tuesday.

Another major nickel producer, Glencore GLNCY, doesn't expect the market rebalancing "for quite some time," the company said Wednesday.

The Swiss miner and commodities trading giant is looking to sell its stake in a joint nickel venture in the South Pacific and will put the unprofitable mine on care and maintenance in the meantime. It cited high operating costs and a very weak nickel market.

Also Read: Warrior Met Coal’s Ballooning Development Costs Prompt Analysts To Rethink Projections

"Battery demand, which has been growing exponentially in recent years, is expected to grow at a slower rate in the short term, as some EV manufacturers scale back sales forecasts," Glencore said. "Demand from the stainless steel and alloy sectors has continued to increase, but total demand is unable to absorb the large supply additions to the market."

Mining giant Vale VALE is assessing how to lower costs at its Thompson operations in Manitoba, Canada, and its Onça Puma operations in Brazil, Mark Cutifani, chair of the company's base metals business, said in a conference call Friday.

Productivity improvements over the next two to three years could translate into 15% operating cost reductions, he said. Separately, the company is prioritizing a decision about merging its nickel operations in Ontario, Canada, with those of Glencore to save on costs, Reuters reported.

"The asset review is taking us in the right direction," Cutifani said. "We've just got to get there as quick as we can."

Other recent nickel mining developments related to the falling price include:

• Anglo American NGLOY took more than $800 million in impairment charges for its Barro Alto and Codemin mines in Brazil. "This takes the carrying value of assets excluding inventory to zero, and we are in the process of assessing the appropriate operating strategy for the near term," finance director John Heasley said in a conference call on Thursday. 
• First Quantum Minerals Ltd. FQLV said it would start only processing stockpiles at its Ravensthorpe mine in Australia.
• Panoramic Resources Ltd. PANRF said it would suspend operations at its Savanna project in Australia.
• Also in Australia, IGO Ltd. IPGDF recorded impairment charges on its Forrestania and Cosmos assets and put Cosmos on care and maintenance.
• Sherritt International Corp. SHERF reduced spending during the third quarter and in January announced layoffs amounting to 10% of its Canadian workforce.

Now Read: African Rail Projects Become Battleground For US-China Competition In Strategic Mineral Supply Chains

Image: Pixabay