Tuesday's Market Minute: A Busy Holiday-Shortened Week

Let’s begin with some of the data due out in the coming days—a slow start to the week with the PMI Composite Flash front and center after the strong PMI figures out Germany and the U.K. overnight, with the U.K. services PMI and the Composite above 50 and well above expectations. In addition to the PMI figures here in the U.S. today, we also have Existing Home Sales and a 2-year Note Auction later this afternoon.

Tomorrow, we have the Fed Minutes due out and they’ll be closely watched after the comments from Loretta Mester and James Bullard last week suggesting there was a case for a 50bps rate hike at the last FOMC meeting. Tomorrow, we’ll hear from John Williams and there’s a 5-year Note Auction. Thursday, things start to heat up with the GDP and Jobless Claims; we’ll hear from Raphael Bostic, get a look at the Fed’s balance sheet, and see the 7-year Note Auction. Friday, the focus will be on the Personal Income and Spending with the Core PCE data front and center, as well as New Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment. 

In terms of earnings, this week we kick things off with a look at Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) ahead of the bell this morning. On the close, we’ll get a look at results from Toll Brothers (TOL), Coinbase (COIN), Caesars (CZR), and Palo Alto (PANW). Tomorrow, we have Baidu (BIDU), TJX (TJX), Nvidia (NVDA), Etsy (ETSY), and Lucid (LCID). Thursday, Alibaba (BABA), Moderna (MRNA), Wayfair (W), Yeti (YETI), Carvana (CVNA), Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), and Beyond Meat (BYND) report. Friday, keep an eye on EOG Resources (EOG) and Cinemark (CNK)…but that’s just a few names on the list on companies reporting this week. 

Keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar this week, especially Wednesday when we get a look at the Fed minutes. The greenback after a period of weakness has begun to firm again, back to the middle of the range established last year. With continued dollar strength, we run into the risk of it becoming a headwind to stocks, further adding to investors’ unwillingness to hold on to riskier assets like stocks in a higher rate environment. The minutes will be key this week in terms of trying to get a feel for what’s to come at the upcoming March FOMC meeting, especially after the wave of stronger-than-expected data here in the U.S. after the NFP topped expectations and the CPI figures came in hot. Lastly, higher rates—last week the TNX was back to 3.9%, the TYX was up to 4.4% and the shorter dated 2-year up to 4.6%—have been weighing on equities.

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